Subnational democracy, protest, and welfare

Abstract

What accounts for subnational variation in the provision of social services and welfare outcomes? Taking inspiration from the literature explaining national-level variation, we look to the subnational political regime to help understand welfare disparities. Broadly consistent with the argument at the national level, we find that more democratic subnational units are more welfare-enhancing. Through a quantitative analysis of Argentine provinces, which show wide variation in regime type as well as welfare provision and outcomes, we find that democratic provinces have better welfare outcomes, measured as the infant mortality rate. By disaggregating different aspects of the regime, we show the effect is driven by permissive rules regarding gubernatorial term limits. We also find that, while the political regime is not systematically related to the provision of healthcare services, protest does have a positive effect on health service delivery, regardless of the subnational regime.