The impact of meteorological factors on cruise operations

Abstract

The cruise industry is highly vulnerable to adverse weather conditions and poor air quality, both of which carry significant economic implications. This study explores these challenges through a multi-stage theoretical framework, integrating weather risk and impact theory, complex systems theory, and risk loss theory. Using a diverse range of methodologies—including single-factor and multi-factor Generalized Additive Models (GAM) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART) analysis—we systematically identify key determinants of cruise delays, such as wind speed, precipitation, visibility, and sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and analyze their impacts in depth. Our findings reveal a synergistic effect between wind speed and SO₂ in intensifying delays, challenging traditional weather risk models and calling for a more holistic approach. The CART analysis further simplifies these complex interactions into practical decision-making tools for industry stakeholders. Additionally, through the Time Value Assessment Method, we quantify the economic consequences of delays, demonstrating that losses escalate significantly as delays prolong. This study sets a new benchmark for environmental risk analysis in maritime transportation and provides actionable insights for developing adaptable, sustainable policy frameworks in the cruise industry.