Data-driven price trends prediction of Ethereum: A hybrid machine learning and signal processing approach

Abstract

Due to recent fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices, Ethereum has gained recognition as an investment asset. Given its volatile nature, there is a significant demand for accurate predictions to guide investment choices. This paper examines the most influential features of the daily price trends of Ethereum using a novel approach that combines the Random Forest classifier and the ReliefF method. Integrating the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) results in high accuracy and performance metrics for Ethereum price trend predictions. This method stands out from prior research, primarily based on time series analysis, by enhancing pattern recognition across time and frequency domains. This adaptability leads to better prediction capabilities with accuracy reaching 76.56% in a highly chaotic market such as cryptocurrency. The STFT's ability to reveal cyclical trends in Ethereum's price provides valuable insights for the ANFIS model, leading to more precise predictions and addressing a notable gap in cryptocurrency research. Hence, compared to models in literature such as Gradient Boosting, Long Short-Term Memory, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting, the proposed model adapts to complex data patterns and captures intricate non-linear relationships, making it well-suited for cryptocurrency prediction.