Gravity center trend analysis (GCTA) as a new method for determining the trends of hydro-meteorological data

Abstract

This paper introduces Gravity Centre Trend Analysis (GCTA), a new method developed to analyse the trends of time series without any data constraints. The method provides both graphical identification of trends and easy calculation of trend magnitude. In the study, the applicability of GCTA is tested using monthly precipitation data and global land–ocean temperature index between 1869–2018 in New York Central Park. The findings revealed that there is a general increasing trend in annual precipitation data, but this trend shows periodic changes in monthly data. Significant increasing trends were found in April, May and November, while decreasing trends were found in February, July and October. An increasing trend was detected in the Global Land-Ocean index data. It was evaluated that the negative impact of this increase in global warming on precipitation regimes will increase in the coming years and the frequency of flood and drought events in the region may increase.