{"title":"Downside belief disagreements and financial instability: Evidence from risk factor disclosures in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings","authors":"Rui Li , Jianping Li , Xiaoqian Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102118","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At what point does the shift from a stable to an unstable financial system occur? This study develops the first measurement of downside belief disagreements by utilizing the qualitative disclosures of risk factors in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings. We show that the transition into financial instability occurs with a large increase in downside belief disagreements. Notably, it is not only downside belief disagreements but also its interaction with rapid credit expansion that matters for financial stability risks. We further conduct mechanism tests and find that downside belief disagreements harm financial stability by imposing credit constraints and price reductions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102118"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443125000083","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/2/4 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
At what point does the shift from a stable to an unstable financial system occur? This study develops the first measurement of downside belief disagreements by utilizing the qualitative disclosures of risk factors in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings. We show that the transition into financial instability occurs with a large increase in downside belief disagreements. Notably, it is not only downside belief disagreements but also its interaction with rapid credit expansion that matters for financial stability risks. We further conduct mechanism tests and find that downside belief disagreements harm financial stability by imposing credit constraints and price reductions.
期刊介绍：
International trade, financing and investments, and the related cash and credit transactions, have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years. The international monetary system has continued to evolve to accommodate the need for foreign-currency denominated transactions and in the process has provided opportunities for its ongoing observation and study. The purpose of the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the international aspects of financial markets, institutions and money. Theoretical/conceptual and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • International financial markets • International securities markets • Foreign exchange markets • Eurocurrency markets • International syndications • Term structures of Eurocurrency rates • Determination of exchange rates • Information, speculation and parity • Forward rates and swaps • International payment mechanisms • International commercial banking; • International investment banking • Central bank intervention • International monetary systems • Balance of payments.
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