Climate, peace, and conflict—past and present: Bridging insights from historical sciences and contemporary research

IF 5.1 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Ambio Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI:10.1007/s13280-024-02109-1

Sam White, Dominik Collet, Agustí Alcoberro, Mariano Barriendos, Rudolf Brázdil, Pau Castell, Siyu Chen, Cedric de Coning, Dagomar Degroot, Lukáš Dolák, Stefan Döring, Santiago Gorostiza, Katrin Kleemann, Florian Krampe, Kuan-Hui Lin, Nicolas Maughan, Natália Melo, Barry Molloy, Astrid E. J. Ogilvie, Piling Pai, Qing Pei, Christian Pfister, Silviya Serafimova, Diyang Zhang

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Abstract

Concern has risen that current global warming and more frequent extreme events such as droughts and floods will increase conflict around the world. This concern has spurred both social science research on contemporary climate, peace, and conflict as well as research in the historical sciences on past climate, weather, warfare, and violence. This perspectives article compares these two fields of scholarship and examines how each may benefit the other. It finds significant convergences in methods and insights across contemporary and historical research as well as persistent patterns in causal pathways between climate and conflict. Contemporary climate, peace, and conflict (CPC) research may sharpen methods and causal models for historical researchers. Historical studies, particularly those informed by contemporary research, may elucidate deep origins and long-term effects of climate-related conflicts. For policymakers and the public, history offers comprehensible ways to make sense of complex and contingent linkages and to construct cogent narratives of the past as well as storylines for the future.

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气候、和平和冲突——过去和现在：从历史科学和当代研究中弥合见解。

人们越来越担心，当前的全球变暖以及干旱和洪水等更频繁的极端事件将加剧世界各地的冲突。这种关注刺激了对当代气候、和平和冲突的社会科学研究，以及对过去气候、天气、战争和暴力的历史科学研究。这篇观点文章比较了这两个学术领域，并探讨了它们如何相互受益。报告发现，在当代和历史研究的方法和见解以及气候与冲突之间因果关系的持续模式方面，存在显著的趋同。当代气候、和平与冲突（CPC）研究可以为历史研究人员提供方法和因果模型。历史研究，特别是那些由当代研究提供信息的历史研究，可以阐明与气候有关的冲突的深层起源和长期影响。对于政策制定者和公众来说，历史为理解复杂和偶然的联系提供了可理解的方法，并为过去和未来构建了令人信服的故事情节。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ambio 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

14.30

自引率

3.10%

发文量

123

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Explores the link between anthropogenic activities and the environment, Ambio encourages multi- or interdisciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. Ambio addresses the scientific, social, economic, and cultural factors that influence the condition of the human environment. Ambio particularly encourages multi- or inter-disciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. For more than 45 years Ambio has brought international perspective to important developments in environmental research, policy and related activities for an international readership of specialists, generalists, students, decision-makers and interested laymen.