Pub Date : 2024-11-19DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02103-7
Kjell Larsson, Ulrica Carlson, Erik Stålnacke
The transport of non-petroleum substances such as vegetable oils, other bio-based oils and their refined products by chemical tankers is increasing worldwide. The majority of the non-petroleum substances carried by chemical tankers will have detrimental effects on the marine environment if accidentally spilled or discharged during tank washing procedures. Swedish Coast Guard aircrafts detected 233 discharges of floating non-petroleum substances in the Swedish territorial sea and Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) between 2020 and 2023. The majority of the discharges, 84%, were detected in the EEZ. About 14% of the discharges were detected within protected marine Natura 2000 sites. Together, the detected discharges covered 1071 km2 of sea surface. Discharges in marine Natura 2000 sites covered 228 km2. We conclude that the regulations in the IMO MARPOL Annex II convention are not strict enough to meet the objectives of EU nature legislation regarding protection of sensitive seas areas.
{"title":"Recurrent discharges of non-petroleum substances from chemical tankers in Swedish marine Natura 2000 sites are against the aims of EU Directives.","authors":"Kjell Larsson, Ulrica Carlson, Erik Stålnacke","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02103-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02103-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The transport of non-petroleum substances such as vegetable oils, other bio-based oils and their refined products by chemical tankers is increasing worldwide. The majority of the non-petroleum substances carried by chemical tankers will have detrimental effects on the marine environment if accidentally spilled or discharged during tank washing procedures. Swedish Coast Guard aircrafts detected 233 discharges of floating non-petroleum substances in the Swedish territorial sea and Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) between 2020 and 2023. The majority of the discharges, 84%, were detected in the EEZ. About 14% of the discharges were detected within protected marine Natura 2000 sites. Together, the detected discharges covered 1071 km<sup>2</sup> of sea surface. Discharges in marine Natura 2000 sites covered 228 km<sup>2</sup>. We conclude that the regulations in the IMO MARPOL Annex II convention are not strict enough to meet the objectives of EU nature legislation regarding protection of sensitive seas areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142674835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02086-5
O Care, Julie G Zaehringer, Michael J Bernstein, Mollie Chapman, Cecilie Friis, Sonia Graham, L Jamila Haider, Mónica Hernández-Morcillo, Harry Hoffmann, Maria Lee Kernecker, Hannah Pitt, Verena Seufert
In many transdisciplinary research settings, a lack of attention to the values underpinning project aims can inhibit stakeholder engagement and ultimately slow or undermine project outcomes. As a research collective (The Careoperative), we have developed a set of four shared values through a facilitated visioning process, as central to the way we work together: care, reflexivity, inclusivity, and collectivity. In this paper, we explore the implications of a values-centered approach to collaboration in food system transformation research. The paper presents two cases that illustrate how researchers might approach centering values in practice. Where much research on food system transformation focuses on values of food system stakeholders, we contribute insights into the values of researchers in such transdisciplinary endeavors. Specifically, we argue that researchers working on sustainability transformations need to be better prepared to engage in such reflections and aspire to embody values aligned with the transformations they seek to research.
{"title":"Reaping what we sow: Centering values in food systems transformations research.","authors":"O Care, Julie G Zaehringer, Michael J Bernstein, Mollie Chapman, Cecilie Friis, Sonia Graham, L Jamila Haider, Mónica Hernández-Morcillo, Harry Hoffmann, Maria Lee Kernecker, Hannah Pitt, Verena Seufert","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02086-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02086-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In many transdisciplinary research settings, a lack of attention to the values underpinning project aims can inhibit stakeholder engagement and ultimately slow or undermine project outcomes. As a research collective (The Careoperative), we have developed a set of four shared values through a facilitated visioning process, as central to the way we work together: care, reflexivity, inclusivity, and collectivity. In this paper, we explore the implications of a values-centered approach to collaboration in food system transformation research. The paper presents two cases that illustrate how researchers might approach centering values in practice. Where much research on food system transformation focuses on values of food system stakeholders, we contribute insights into the values of researchers in such transdisciplinary endeavors. Specifically, we argue that researchers working on sustainability transformations need to be better prepared to engage in such reflections and aspire to embody values aligned with the transformations they seek to research.</p>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142643436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-10DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02087-4
Driss Ezzine-de-Blas, Tanya Hayes, Esteve Corbera, V. Sophie Avila-Foucat
In complex Social-Ecological Systems (SES), the interplay between ecological and social components shapes trajectories that impact human well-being and ecosystem services. While SES dynamics have been studied in static conditions, there has been less attention to how said systems respond to shocks and stressors over time and space. This special issue presents a collection of articles that use diverse methodologies—ranging from system dynamics modeling to participatory approaches—to analyze past SES changes and discuss future scenarios. Case studies from regions including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Honduras, Chile, Ethiopia and Mongolia illustrate key variables influencing social–ecological transitions and provide insights into potential policy strategies to support sustainable SES. The studies underscore the need for multi-scalar approaches to SES research that explicitly theorize and empirically assess trajectories across space and time.
{"title":"Looking back to shape the future: Trajectories and resilience of social–ecological systems in the Global South","authors":"Driss Ezzine-de-Blas, Tanya Hayes, Esteve Corbera, V. Sophie Avila-Foucat","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02087-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13280-024-02087-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In complex Social-Ecological Systems (SES), the interplay between ecological and social components shapes trajectories that impact human well-being and ecosystem services. While SES dynamics have been studied in static conditions, there has been less attention to how said systems respond to shocks and stressors over time and space. This special issue presents a collection of articles that use diverse methodologies—ranging from system dynamics modeling to participatory approaches—to analyze past SES changes and discuss future scenarios. Case studies from regions including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Honduras, Chile, Ethiopia and Mongolia illustrate key variables influencing social–ecological transitions and provide insights into potential policy strategies to support sustainable SES. The studies underscore the need for multi-scalar approaches to SES research that explicitly theorize and empirically assess trajectories across space and time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":"53 12","pages":"1715 - 1721"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142611669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-07DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6
Ignacio Palomo, Alberto González-García, Paul J Ferraro, Rodan Muradian, Unai Pascual, Manuel Arboledas, James M Bullock, Enora Bruley, Erik Gómez-Baggethun, Sandra Lavorel
To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly "bend the curve" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.
{"title":"Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets.","authors":"Ignacio Palomo, Alberto González-García, Paul J Ferraro, Rodan Muradian, Unai Pascual, Manuel Arboledas, James M Bullock, Enora Bruley, Erik Gómez-Baggethun, Sandra Lavorel","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly \"bend the curve\" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.</p>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142602395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-06DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02053-0
Alejandra Pedraza-Gama, María Perevochtchikova, J. Mauricio Galeana-Pizaña
Urban periphery watersheds play a crucial role in providing diverse ecosystem services, especially hydrological services (HES), for society at different temporal and spatial scales; moreover, local populations directly influence ecosystem functionality through their decisions and actions. The interactions between social and ecological factors create social–ecological systems (SESs), whose trajectories continuously change in response to internal factors such as land use cover change (LUCC) and external factors such as climate change (CC). This situation influences the vulnerability of SESs in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capacity. In this study, the social–ecological vulnerability (SEV) of the periphery of Mexico City was investigated based on the Collaborative Protocol for Ecosystem Services Assessment and Social–ecological Vulnerability Mapping (ECOSER) and a quantitative method approach. For this purpose, spatial analysis was performed using the ecological and social spatial data for LUCC tendencies calculated for 1999–2019 and projected for short-term CC scenarios and using LUCC calculated for 2039 in trend-based (TREND) and restrictive (REST) scenarios. The results reveal that increases in the SEV in 2039 will be related to important decreases in the HES; furthermore, the REST scenario suggests decreases in the SEV due to decreases in the HES, assuming that environmental public policy instruments will be preserved in this region. The present work aims to contribute to decision-making for HES preservation at local and regional scales and to help develop adaptation strategies under LUCC and CC scenarios.
城市周边流域在不同时间和空间尺度上为社会提供各种生态系统服务,尤其是水文服务(HES)方面发挥着至关重要的作用;此外,当地居民通过其决策和行动直接影响着生态系统的功能。社会和生态因素之间的相互作用形成了社会生态系统(SES),其轨迹随着土地利用覆盖变化(LUCC)等内部因素和气候变化(CC)等外部因素而不断变化。这种情况从暴露程度、敏感性和适应能力等方面影响着 SES 的脆弱性。本研究基于生态系统服务评估和社会生态脆弱性绘图合作协议(ECOSER)和定量方法,对墨西哥城周边地区的社会生态脆弱性(SEV)进行了调查。为此,利用生态和社会空间数据对 1999-2019 年的 LUCC 趋势进行了计算,并对短期 CC 情景进行了预测,还利用基于趋势(TREND)和限制性(REST)情景计算的 2039 年 LUCC 进行了空间分析。研究结果表明,2039 年的 SEV 增加将与 HES 的大幅下降有关;此外,假设该地区将保留环境公共政策工具,REST 情景表明,由于 HES 的下降,SEV 也将下降。本研究旨在为地方和区域范围内保护 HES 的决策做出贡献,并帮助制定 LUCC 和 CC 情景下的适应战略。
{"title":"Social–ecological system trajectories of peri-urban watersheds based on a spatial analysis of vulnerability components: A case study in Mexico City, 1999–2039","authors":"Alejandra Pedraza-Gama, María Perevochtchikova, J. Mauricio Galeana-Pizaña","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02053-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13280-024-02053-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban periphery watersheds play a crucial role in providing diverse ecosystem services, especially hydrological services (HES), for society at different temporal and spatial scales; moreover, local populations directly influence ecosystem functionality through their decisions and actions. The interactions between social and ecological factors create social–ecological systems (SESs), whose trajectories continuously change in response to internal factors such as land use cover change (LUCC) and external factors such as climate change (CC). This situation influences the vulnerability of SESs in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capacity. In this study, the social–ecological vulnerability (SEV) of the periphery of Mexico City was investigated based on the Collaborative Protocol for Ecosystem Services Assessment and Social–ecological Vulnerability Mapping (ECOSER) and a quantitative method approach. For this purpose, spatial analysis was performed using the ecological and social spatial data for LUCC tendencies calculated for 1999–2019 and projected for short-term CC scenarios and using LUCC calculated for 2039 in trend-based (TREND) and restrictive (REST) scenarios. The results reveal that increases in the SEV in 2039 will be related to important decreases in the HES; furthermore, the REST scenario suggests decreases in the SEV due to decreases in the HES, assuming that environmental public policy instruments will be preserved in this region. The present work aims to contribute to decision-making for HES preservation at local and regional scales and to help develop adaptation strategies under LUCC and CC scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":"53 12","pages":"1830 - 1846"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142589307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-06DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02089-2
Andrzej Bobiec, Ian D Rotherham, Simay Kırca, Zsolt Molnár, Mauro Agnoletti
In this perspective, we present and discuss four major causes of the worldwide nature conservation failure: 1) ideologies based on nature-culture dualism, 2) the bias prioritising forests in conservation, 3) the illusory objectiveness of selected biological indicators, and 4) the mismanagement of rural agricultural landscapes. All of these relate to ignorance of historical ecology and neglect of the role past plays in shaping landscapes and fostering biodiversity. These led to a false anthropology focussed on the broader human economy (including agriculture) as the absolute culprit of biodiversity loss. It is believed, therefore, that biodiversity preservation depends on conservation policies and actions providing protection against human activities, such as farming. In this way, nature conservation has been detached from the rich experiences of long and fruitful coexistence of people with other elements of nature. The bio-cultural legacy includes biodiversity-rich rural landscapes, whose habitats are often either neglected or wrongly interpreted as "remnants of natural ecosystems". Consequently, conservation efforts are frequently ineffective or worse still, counter-effective. In the face of policies favouring subsidised intensive agribusiness at the cost of destroying smallholder family farming, even expensive conservation projects are usually nothing more than a "fig leaf" to cover failure. We advocate re-focussing of conservation planning to put more emphasis on landscapes' historical ecology responsible for their bio-cultural diversity. It implies the need for new principles in policies necessary to secure the economic and cultural sovereignty of local socio-ecological systems responsible for the world's bio-cultural diversity.
{"title":"Towards biocultural realism: Connecting conservation with historical ecology and common sense. A European perspective.","authors":"Andrzej Bobiec, Ian D Rotherham, Simay Kırca, Zsolt Molnár, Mauro Agnoletti","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02089-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02089-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this perspective, we present and discuss four major causes of the worldwide nature conservation failure: 1) ideologies based on nature-culture dualism, 2) the bias prioritising forests in conservation, 3) the illusory objectiveness of selected biological indicators, and 4) the mismanagement of rural agricultural landscapes. All of these relate to ignorance of historical ecology and neglect of the role past plays in shaping landscapes and fostering biodiversity. These led to a false anthropology focussed on the broader human economy (including agriculture) as the absolute culprit of biodiversity loss. It is believed, therefore, that biodiversity preservation depends on conservation policies and actions providing protection against human activities, such as farming. In this way, nature conservation has been detached from the rich experiences of long and fruitful coexistence of people with other elements of nature. The bio-cultural legacy includes biodiversity-rich rural landscapes, whose habitats are often either neglected or wrongly interpreted as \"remnants of natural ecosystems\". Consequently, conservation efforts are frequently ineffective or worse still, counter-effective. In the face of policies favouring subsidised intensive agribusiness at the cost of destroying smallholder family farming, even expensive conservation projects are usually nothing more than a \"fig leaf\" to cover failure. We advocate re-focussing of conservation planning to put more emphasis on landscapes' historical ecology responsible for their bio-cultural diversity. It implies the need for new principles in policies necessary to secure the economic and cultural sovereignty of local socio-ecological systems responsible for the world's bio-cultural diversity.</p>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142589229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The 2004 tsunami and coastal subsidence resulted in 97% mangrove loss in the Nicobar Islands (India), leading to major social-ecological change. We assessed how the Nicobar mangrove social-ecological system (SES) responded to the 2004 event using the adaptive cycle (AC) framework. We describe the changes across AC phases (collapse-Ω, reorganisation-α, growth-r, and conservation-K) concerning various capital types (natural, built, human, social), connectedness and resilience. The subsidence and tsunami triggered a rapid collapse (Ω) in the mangrove SES, particularly depleting natural and built capitals. Despite declines in social and human capital, some knowledge and skills were retained within Nicobari communities. We suggest that locally managed interventions involving mangrove restoration are critical to escape the poverty trap caused by resource insufficiency hindering growth. The AC model helps visualise and describe temporal changes, preparing for recovery challenges. This approach is relevant to SESs beyond Nicobar, offering insights for sites confronting similar social-ecological dynamics and challenges.
{"title":"Shifted baselines: Using the adaptive cycle to assess the post-tsunami mangrove social-ecological system recovery in the Nicobar Islands.","authors":"Nehru Prabakaran, Meenakshi Poti, Jean Hugé, Nico Koedam, Kartik Shanker, Farid Dahdouh-Guebas","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02088-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02088-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The 2004 tsunami and coastal subsidence resulted in 97% mangrove loss in the Nicobar Islands (India), leading to major social-ecological change. We assessed how the Nicobar mangrove social-ecological system (SES) responded to the 2004 event using the adaptive cycle (AC) framework. We describe the changes across AC phases (collapse-Ω, reorganisation-α, growth-r, and conservation-K) concerning various capital types (natural, built, human, social), connectedness and resilience. The subsidence and tsunami triggered a rapid collapse (Ω) in the mangrove SES, particularly depleting natural and built capitals. Despite declines in social and human capital, some knowledge and skills were retained within Nicobari communities. We suggest that locally managed interventions involving mangrove restoration are critical to escape the poverty trap caused by resource insufficiency hindering growth. The AC model helps visualise and describe temporal changes, preparing for recovery challenges. This approach is relevant to SESs beyond Nicobar, offering insights for sites confronting similar social-ecological dynamics and challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142589306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-02DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02082-9
J. Mauricio Galeana-Pizaña, Gabriel Morales-Martínez, María Perevochtchikova
Peri-urban areas provide multiple ecosystem services, but face critical challenges, including deforestation, unplanned urban sprawl, and environmental pollution and degradation. To address these issues, environmental public policy instruments have been implemented. This paper aims to investigate the social ecological trajectories of a peri-urban area of Mexico City and the role of environmental public policy instruments in addressing land use change. Focusing on four watersheds of the southern periphery of the city, we analyze land use change drivers through neural networks and Markov chains, and we develop two land use scenarios for the next 20 years: one characterized by business as usual and another with a more restrictive land use regime. Our findings show that infrastructure drivers are the most critical factor overall, when combined with the historical social ecological trajectory of the study area. The impact of environmental public policy instruments on future trajectories demonstrates their potential to decrease deforestation. The results provide insights for the integrated territorial planning of peri-urban areas with similar social ecological dynamics and developing context.
{"title":"Forest fates: Unraveling the peri-urban social–ecological trajectories in Mexico City's conservation land","authors":"J. Mauricio Galeana-Pizaña, Gabriel Morales-Martínez, María Perevochtchikova","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02082-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13280-024-02082-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Peri-urban areas provide multiple ecosystem services, but face critical challenges, including deforestation, unplanned urban sprawl, and environmental pollution and degradation. To address these issues, environmental public policy instruments have been implemented. This paper aims to investigate the social ecological trajectories of a peri-urban area of Mexico City and the role of environmental public policy instruments in addressing land use change. Focusing on four watersheds of the southern periphery of the city, we analyze land use change drivers through neural networks and Markov chains, and we develop two land use scenarios for the next 20 years: one characterized by business as usual and another with a more restrictive land use regime. Our findings show that infrastructure drivers are the most critical factor overall, when combined with the historical social ecological trajectory of the study area. The impact of environmental public policy instruments on future trajectories demonstrates their potential to decrease deforestation. The results provide insights for the integrated territorial planning of peri-urban areas with similar social ecological dynamics and developing context.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":"53 12","pages":"1768 - 1782"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-30DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02080-x
Abbie Tingstad, Kristin Van Abel, Mia M Bennett, Isabelle Winston, Lawson W Brigham, Scott R Stephenson, Margaret Wilcox, Stephanie Pezard
Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts' expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the "many Arctics" concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future. Sub-regions of the Arctic differed in expert expectations about the future of resource extraction, tourism, Indigenous self-determination, and military activity, among other outcomes. This work also discusses the post-2022 geopolitical situation and some potential implications of "many Arctics" for policy and future governance.
{"title":"Divergent trajectories of Arctic change: Implications for future socio-economic patterns.","authors":"Abbie Tingstad, Kristin Van Abel, Mia M Bennett, Isabelle Winston, Lawson W Brigham, Scott R Stephenson, Margaret Wilcox, Stephanie Pezard","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02080-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02080-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts' expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the \"many Arctics\" concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future. Sub-regions of the Arctic differed in expert expectations about the future of resource extraction, tourism, Indigenous self-determination, and military activity, among other outcomes. This work also discusses the post-2022 geopolitical situation and some potential implications of \"many Arctics\" for policy and future governance.</p>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142542639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1007/s13280-024-02081-w
Johannes Hermes, Christian Albert, Christina von Haaren
While policy interest and research on recreational ecosystem services (RES) has increased substantially, insights into the actual flows of benefits to people have remained scarce, especially at levels beyond local communities. This paper aims to model RES Flows and Benefits for Germany in monetary and non-monetary terms. We use Germany as a case study due its diversity of landscapes and availability of relevant spatial and empirical data. We develop and apply an assessment approach that considers RES Demand and Supply based on user preferences. Our results show distinct demand-supply matches and mismatches, for example in southwest Germany, and highest flows near population centres. Monetary benefits are highest in counties with high RES Supply that are close to densely populated areas. Our results can usefully inform planning and decision-making, for example to improve and further justify destination management, landscape development, and investments in RES at local, regional, and national levels.
{"title":"Modelling monetary and non-monetary flows of recreational ecosystem services in Germany.","authors":"Johannes Hermes, Christian Albert, Christina von Haaren","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02081-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02081-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>While policy interest and research on recreational ecosystem services (RES) has increased substantially, insights into the actual flows of benefits to people have remained scarce, especially at levels beyond local communities. This paper aims to model RES Flows and Benefits for Germany in monetary and non-monetary terms. We use Germany as a case study due its diversity of landscapes and availability of relevant spatial and empirical data. We develop and apply an assessment approach that considers RES Demand and Supply based on user preferences. Our results show distinct demand-supply matches and mismatches, for example in southwest Germany, and highest flows near population centres. Monetary benefits are highest in counties with high RES Supply that are close to densely populated areas. Our results can usefully inform planning and decision-making, for example to improve and further justify destination management, landscape development, and investments in RES at local, regional, and national levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142542640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}