Weakened future surface warming in China due to national planned afforestation through biophysical feedback

IF 8.4 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-00915-2

Shuaifeng Song, Xiaodong Yan, Xuezhen Zhang, Zhibo Gao, Wenqiang Xie

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Abstract

A national-level afforestation plan has been announced by the Chinese government to combat global warming through carbon sequestration. However, the biophysical feedback of afforestation under future climate scenarios has not yet been assessed. Here, using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) nested by the bias-corrected MPI-ESM1-2-HR model, we simulated how future afforestation regulated the land surface temperature (LST) in China. The results show that afforestation induces a significant cooling effect over the period 2041–2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, in particular in the cold season. The additional cooling effect offsets about 3.69% of the projected LST increase due to global warming and even overcompensates the LST increase in southwestern China. On the diurnal cycles, afforestation induces daytime cooling effects of −0.21 °C caused by increased latent heat fluxes, while nighttime warming effects of 0.05 °C induced mainly by cloud feedback. Our findings highlight the importance of the scientific identification of afforestation areas when developing land-management strategies and biophysical feedback for climate change mitigation.

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通过生物物理反馈，国家计划造林减弱了中国未来地表变暖

中国政府宣布了一项全国性的植树造林计划，旨在通过碳封存来应对全球变暖。然而，在未来气候情景下造林的生物物理反馈尚未得到评估。本文利用MPI-ESM1-2-HR模式嵌套的气象研究与预报模式（WRF），模拟了未来造林对中国地表温度的调节作用。结果表明，在SSP2-4.5情景下，植树造林对2041-2060年具有显著的降温效应，特别是在寒冷季节。额外的降温效应抵消了全球变暖导致的地表温度预估增加的3.69%，甚至过度补偿了中国西南地区地表温度的增加。在日循环上，由于潜热通量的增加，造林引起了−0.21°C的日间降温效应，而夜间增温效应主要是由云反馈引起的0.05°C。我们的研究结果强调了在制定土地管理战略和生物物理反馈以减缓气候变化时科学确定造林区域的重要性。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.