Evaluation of the applicability of the predictive HSM method in signalized urban intersections in Colombia

Abstract

The rising number of traffic collisions in developing countries has sparked concern due to a lack of understanding and mitigating measures. To grasp their behavior and contribute to the quantitative assessment of road safety, the adaptation of predictive procedures for estimating the frequency and type of crashes, created in the United States and contained in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM), has been chosen. The applicability of these procedures in developing countries with different conditions depends on their adaptation to the environment, which is the objective of this work—to assess the applicability of the predictive method of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) for urban intersections under conditions unique to Colombia. Signalized intersections in Medellín were selected, collecting data on crash occurrences, vehicular volumes, and geometric characteristics to create simulation scenarios to evaluate the applicability of the predictive method. Calibration Coefficients for the HSM's predictive method at three- and four-way intersections were calculated using the Crash Prediction Module (CPM) of the IHSDM software, concluding shortcomings in the application and transferability for Colombia and likely for other developing countries.