Global assessment modeling to reveal spatiotemporal variations and socioenvironmental drivers in drainage system flood-resilient performance

Abstract

Flood resilience has received considerable attention from urban areas experiencing intense rainstorms due to urbanization and climate change. Preevent assessments and measures can facilitate the resilience performance of urban drainage infrastructure. Current resilience studies predominantly evaluate a single fixed scenario without exploring the spatiotemporal dynamic process and its underlying drivers. Here, a synthetic assessment model is developed to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban drainage system (UDS) resilience via a targeted failure pattern approach coupled with a component degradation model to identify resilience-sensitive pipe segments and provide quantitative simulation evaluations of global resilience performance at spatiotemporal scales. The Mantel test reveals the spatial correlation between pipeline sensitivity performance and socioenvironmental factors and identifies key indicators. We find that spatial failure patterns reduce system resilience more than component deterioration over time does. The resilience-sensitivity performance of pipes exhibits a significant spatial relationship with two indicators (i.e., nighttime light and population density). Subcatchment flooding-vulnerable performance is thus proven to be more sensitive to localized changes in two socioenvironmental drivers. This study provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban drainage system resilience, which enables decision-makers to pinpoint priority zones where the deployment of flood mitigation strategies would be optimally effective.