{"title":"Quantifying speculative-bubble effects in major European soccer leagues","authors":"John Fry , Jane M. Binner","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112208","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We apply the theory of super-exponential rational bubbles to football transfer data. Refining previous qualitative approaches we model the aggregate transfer spend as a fraction of the TV income. Evidence of substantial bubble effects is found across the English, French, German and Italian leagues. This suggests long-term reductions in transfer spending relative to TV receipts. Our model predicts the existence of other signs of soccer bubbles beyond over-pricing. These include differences in the market for star players and the market for regular players and other signs of illiquidity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 112208"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics Letters","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016517652500045X","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We apply the theory of super-exponential rational bubbles to football transfer data. Refining previous qualitative approaches we model the aggregate transfer spend as a fraction of the TV income. Evidence of substantial bubble effects is found across the English, French, German and Italian leagues. This suggests long-term reductions in transfer spending relative to TV receipts. Our model predicts the existence of other signs of soccer bubbles beyond over-pricing. These include differences in the market for star players and the market for regular players and other signs of illiquidity.
期刊介绍：
Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
分享
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
扫码关注我们
