High housing prices and low social integration of China’s new generation migrants in cities

Abstract

This study explores the impact of rising housing prices on the social integration and settlement intentions of migrants in China. We explore this relationship by analyzing the variation in housing price appreciation across different age groups and cities, utilizing individual-level data from the 2017 CMDS survey. To establish a causal relationship, we employ an instrumental variable approach. Our findings reveal a significant negative effect of increasing housing prices on social integration and settlement intentions among migrants. Furthermore, we identify several individual characteristics that can mitigate this effect. Factors such as lower housing demand, longer educational attainment, being married, female gender, and working for the government are associated with a reduced impact of housing price increases on social integration and settlement intentions. These results underscore the long-term consequences of the real estate market on city development. By shedding light on the relationship between housing prices and social integration, our study provides valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners in managing the challenges faced by migrant populations in China.