Beware of the reversal of land degradation neutrality in China's drylands

Abstract

China's drylands have long faced severe land degradation, particularly in soil wind and water erosion. Global greening resulting from climate change and human-led ecological restoration efforts, such as tree planting and afforestation, have enabled China's drylands to achieve land degradation neutrality (LDN) in 2020, marking a significant milestone in environmental management. However, sustaining this status faces uncertainties due to severe climate change and escalating human activities. To address this uncertainty, we evaluated LDN in China's drylands for 2050 under various emission scenarios based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform. LDN was assessed using critical indicators tailored to China's drylands, including land productivity, soil organic carbon, land cover, wind, and water erosion. These indicators assessed LDN based on the "one out, all out" principle. Our findings indicate a potential reversal of LDN in China's drylands by 2050 under various emission scenarios. Recognising the uncertainty is essential for crafting region-specific land management strategies to prevent this reversal and promote sustainable development. This is an opinion paper that evaluates LDN in China's drylands for 2050 under various emission scenarios through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, which emphasises the imperative for adaptive, precise land management policies tailored to the unique challenges faced by China's drylands to ensure long-term resilience and sustainability against adverse climatic and anthropogenic pressures.