A comprehensive framework for evaluating ecosystem quality changes and human activity contributions in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, China

Abstract

Human activities increasingly shape ecosystems, raising critical questions about sustainability and the trade-offs between ecosystem quality and ecosystem services. This study develops a comprehensive framework to evaluate ecosystem quality change (KEQI) changes driven by land use land cover (LULC) shifts and human activities (HA), along with their impacts on ecosystem service values (ESV) in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, two ecologically significant regions in China. The framework integrates five analytical approaches: (i) analyzing LULC dynamics using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCMES) and hotspot analysis to identify areas of significant change; (ii) assessing LULC impacts on ecosystem services values using remote sensing data; (iii) separating human activities and climate change contributions through improved residual trend analysis and pixel-based partial correlation coefficients; (iv) evaluating KEQI changes via retention rates and the Ecological Quality Change Rate; and (v) exploring relationships among KEQI, LULC, HA, and ESV using curve-fitting linear regression. The study reveals notable land-use changes, with croplands, grasslands, and urban areas expanding at the cost of bare land, driven largely by human activities, accounting for 93 % in Inner Mongolia and 89 % in Xinjiang. Regions dominated by human activities observe significant KEQI improvements, with values increasing by 13.5–16.6, particularly in Inner Mongolia. However, these improvements often coincided with declining ESV, notably grasslands in Inner Mongolia (-4.92 %) and croplands in Xinjiang. Some areas showed modest ESV increases (+0.88 %). This study underscores the intricate balance between HA, KEQI, and ESV, offering critical insights for sustainable land management in China. Policymakers can use these findings to manage land-use transitions better, align human activities with conservation goals, and promote ecosystem resilience amidst escalating land-use pressures.