The impact of industrial structural transformation in the Yangtze River economic belt on the trade-offs and synergies between urbanization and carbon balance

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113165

Ran Wu , Gang Yu , Yimo Cao

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Abstract

Promoting carbon balance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is a crucial step in China’s pursuit of carbon neutrality, with industrial structural transformation serving as a vital pathway toward this goal. This paper employs the GeoShapley model and the spatial Durbin model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of the trade-offs and synergies between urbanization and carbon balance in 1028 county-level units of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2021, as well as the impact of industrial structural transformation on these relationships. The results reveal the following: (1) the spatial distribution pattern of trade-off and synergy remained largely unchanged between 2011 and 2021, but there was an overall shift from synergy to trade-off. (2) In the overall regression results, the industrial greening index exhibits opposing effects on local regions and their surroundings, while the industrial upgrading index suppresses development in surrounding areas. (3) In the regional regression results, the industrial greening index shows contrasting effects on the downstream and upstream regions, with a suppressive effect on surrounding areas occurring only in the downstream region. The industrial upgrading index inhibits development in both the downstream and midstream regions, while the industrial rationalization index exerts a suppressive effect exclusively in the downstream region.

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长江经济带产业结构转型对城市化与碳平衡权衡与协同效应的影响

促进长江经济带碳平衡是中国实现碳中和的重要一步，产业结构转型是实现这一目标的重要途径。本文采用GeoShapley模型和空间Durbin模型，研究了2011 - 2021年长江经济带1028个县域单元城市化与碳平衡权衡与协同效应的时空演化，以及产业结构转型对二者关系的影响。研究结果表明：①2011—2021年，权衡与协同的空间分布格局基本保持不变，但整体由协同向权衡转变；(2)在整体回归结果中，工业绿化指数对区域及其周边地区的影响呈现相反的趋势，而产业升级指数则对周边地区的发展具有抑制作用。(3)在区域回归结果中，工业绿化指数在上下游区域表现出对比效应，仅在下游区域对周边区域有抑制作用。产业升级指数对中下游地区的发展均有抑制作用，而产业合理化指数只对下游地区有抑制作用。

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.