Burden and regional disparities of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in India: Insights from the global burden of disease data and projections for future incidence.

Abstract

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries like India. This study aims to analyze regional trends and project future burden of COPD in India using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2021.

Methods: This analysis utilized data from the GBD study to assess age-standardized prevalence (ASPR), incidence (ASIR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) for COPD across Indian states. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends, while ARIMA models predicted future incidence rates.

Results: In 2021, the highest ASIR was observed in Rajasthan at 306.28, and the highest ASMR was observed in Uttarakhand at 227.19. Projections suggest that the ASIR for COPD in India will decrease from 265.16 in 2022 to 258.19 by 2031. The heatmap analysis identified states like Uttarakhand and Rajasthan as having the highest DALYs attributable to COPD risk factors, including air pollution and tobacco use.

Conclusion: COPD remains a public health challenge in India, with regional variability. Targeted interventions addressing air pollution, smoking cessation, and improved healthcare access are essential to mitigate the disease's future burden, particularly in high-risk regions.