A review of drivers contributing to unsustainable groundwater consumption in Pakistan

Abstract

Groundwater depletion in Pakistan, particularly in the Indus Basin, poses a severe threat to agricultural sustainability, water security, and economic stability. Over the past few decades, groundwater extraction has surged dramatically, with the number of tube wells increasing by 1500% from 1975 to 2021, reaching 1.4 million. Currently, groundwater supplies 60% of irrigation water, 90% of domestic water, and 100% of industrial water. However, this extensive reliance has resulted in significant water table declines, especially in canal command areas and urban centers. This study synthesizes insights from scientific literature, policy documents, and technical reports to examine the key drivers contributing to unsustainable groundwater consumption in Pakistan. Weak governance structures, inadequate regulatory mechanisms, and increasing agricultural water demand—where five major crops (rice, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, and maize) consume 85% of total water resources while contributing less than 5% to GDP—have led to unchecked groundwater exploitation. The historic 80.3 billion cubic meters (BCM) of annual recharge in the upper Indus plain is now outpaced by extraction, exacerbating the crisis. Climate variability, including a 19% reduction in surface water irrigation area from 2003 to 2021, has further increased reliance on groundwater. Despite some recent policy efforts, such as the Punjab Water Act (2019) and KP Water Act (2020), enforcement remains weak due to institutional constraints and political barriers. There is an urgent need for adaptive groundwater governance, integrating scientific knowledge, regulatory mechanisms, and technological innovations. A transition from an open-access regime to a regulated system, supported by robust monitoring and data-sharing mechanisms, is critical for long-term sustainability. This review highlights urgent policy gaps and provides recommendations to strengthen groundwater governance in Pakistan and other regions facing similar challenges.