How does digital trade development affect carbon emissions? Evidence from China

Abstract

Digital trade development (DTD) contributes to green economic growth across various regions and is crucial in coping with climate change. Using data from China's province-level of 2011–2021, we explore how the regional DTD affects carbon emissions (CE). Results indicate that DTD significantly affects CE with a U-shape in provinces and shows positive spatial spillover effects. Robustness checks validate our findings. Mechanism analyses indicate that DTD affects CE through expanding digital human capital, fostering green technological innovation, and upgrading the industrial structure. Further discussions demonstrate that DTD in eastern and central provinces illustrates notable spillover effects. The eastern region has an inverted U-shape, and the central region is U-shaped. Under the threshold variables of digital human capital, digital finance, and carbon emission intensity, DTD affects CE, revealing clear nonlinear effects. These results support the idea that DTD helps to decrease CE and offers valuable insights into the coordinated development of digitalization and low-carbonization among regions.