Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

Job Destruction or Job Creation?: Evidence from Carbon Emission Trading Policies 工作岗位破坏还是创造？碳排放交易政策的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.017

Based on the panel data of 285 cities in China from 2007 to 2019, this paper constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the employment effect of carbon emission trading policy, and quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness, decomposition effect and influence mechanism of carbon emission trading policy on employment based on PSM-DID method. The study shows that the carbon emissions trading policy has a positive impact on the level of urban employment while producing significant environmental governance effects, and that its positive impact on employment in the pilot cities stems from the negative effect of reducing employment destruction rather than from the positive effect of increasing the job-creating effect. Carbon emissions trading policy promotes employment in the pilot cities through structural transformation effects, specifically through the three paths of green technology innovation, energy structure optimization and industrial structure upgrading. At the same time, the impact of the policy on employment varies significantly across cities of different locations, sizes and resource endowments. The study proposes that the construction of the national carbon market should be accelerated, a market-oriented green technology innovation system should be constructed, the optimization of the energy structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure should be promoted, and training in employment skills should be strengthened. The theoretical analysis of this study provides a theoretical basis for the micro-mechanism of carbon emissions trading policy, and the empirical results provide practical reference for the change of employment structure and the high-quality development of employment.

本文基于2007-2019年中国285个城市的面板数据，构建了碳排放权交易政策就业效应分析的理论框架，并基于PSM-DID方法定量评价了碳排放权交易政策对就业的有效性、分解效应和影响机制。研究表明，碳排放权交易政策在对城市就业水平产生积极影响的同时，也产生了显著的环境治理效应，其对试点城市就业的积极影响源于减少就业破坏的负效应，而非增加就业创造效应的正效应。碳排放权交易政策通过结构转型效应促进了试点城市的就业，具体来说是通过绿色技术创新、能源结构优化和产业结构升级三条路径促进了试点城市的就业。同时，在不同区位、规模和资源禀赋的城市中，政策对就业的影响存在显著差异。研究提出，应加快全国碳市场建设，构建市场导向的绿色技术创新体系，促进能源结构优化和产业结构升级，加强就业技能培训。本研究的理论分析为碳排放权交易政策的微观机制提供了理论依据，实证结果为就业结构变化和就业高质量发展提供了实践参考。

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引用次数: 0

Influence of financial inclusion and industrial robots on the efficiency of China's OFDI: A heterogeneous spatial stochastic frontier analysis 普惠金融和产业机器人对中国对外直接投资效率的影响：异质性空间随机前沿分析

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.020

Enhancing the efficacy of China's outward foreign direct investment (COFDI) constitutes a significant avenue for realizing the sustainable development of China's economy. This study analyzes panel data from 63 countries from 2010 to 2021 to create a heterogeneous spatial stochastic frontier model to examine how financial inclusion and industrial robotics in host nations affect COFDI efficiency. The findings are as follows. To begin with, COFDI manifests positive spatial spillover effects across countries. Moreover, from a spatial perspective, financial inclusion diminishes COFDI efficiency, whereas the interaction between financial inclusion and industrial robots increases its efficiency. Industrial robots, thus, counteract the diminishing impact of financial inclusion on COFDI efficiency. Additionally, concerning the heterogeneity of location choice and investment motivation in COFDI, the interaction between financial inclusion and industrial robots in developed economies augments COFDI efficiency as opposed to emerging market economies. Conversely, technology-seeking investment mitigates the adverse effects of financial inclusion on the efficacy of COFDI when juxtaposed with resource-seeking investment. This study provides theoretical insights and practical recommendations for improving the efficiency and guiding the destination selection of COFDI.

提高中国对外直接投资（COFDI）的效率是实现中国经济可持续发展的重要途径。本研究通过分析 2010 年至 2021 年 63 个国家的面板数据，建立异质性空间随机前沿模型，研究东道国的普惠金融和工业机器人技术如何影响 COFDI 效率。研究结果如下。首先，外国直接投资在各国之间表现出积极的空间溢出效应。此外，从空间角度看，普惠金融降低了 COFDI 的效率，而普惠金融与工业机器人的相互作用则提高了 COFDI 的效率。因此，工业机器人抵消了普惠金融对外国直接投资效率的递减影响。此外，关于外国直接投资中区位选择和投资动机的异质性，发达经济体中普惠金融与工业机器人之间的相互作用提高了外国直接投资的效率，而新兴市场经济体则相反。相反，当寻求技术的投资与寻求资源的投资并列时，会减轻金融包容性对 COFDI 效率的不利影响。本研究为提高 COFDI 效率和指导目的地选择提供了理论见解和实践建议。

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引用次数: 0

Does local government debt promote firm green innovation? Evidence from the Chinese local government debt governance reform 地方政府债务能否促进企业绿色创新？来自中国地方政府债务治理改革的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.010

Green innovation is a crucial strategy for fostering a green economy and achieving sustainable development. This paper focuses on the role of government debt in the sustainability of firm green innovation, particularly in the context of Chinese local government debt governance reform in 2014 (CLGDGR2014). By analyzing annual data of Chinese publicly listed firms from 2011 to 2018, the study explores the impact of CLGDGR2014 on firm green innovation and the underlying driving mechanisms. The findings suggest that CLGDGR2014 improves the firm green innovation, by alleviating firms' financing constraints and underscoring the productive function of local government debt in advancing new infrastructure development. The further analysis explores the impact of various types of debt on green innovation after CLGDGR2014 and indicates that explicit local government debt has a promoting effect while implicit local government debt is not obvious. In conclusion, this research offers new insights into leveraging and managing local government debt to stimulate green innovation.

绿色创新是促进绿色经济和实现可持续发展的重要战略。本文重点研究政府债务在企业绿色创新可持续性中的作用，尤其是在2014年中国地方政府债务治理改革（CLGDGR2014）的背景下。本研究通过分析 2011 年至 2018 年中国上市公司的年度数据，探讨了 CLGDGR2014 对企业绿色创新的影响及其内在驱动机制。研究结果表明，CLGDGR2014缓解了企业的融资约束，凸显了地方政府债务在推进新型基础设施建设中的生产性功能，从而提高了企业的绿色创新能力。进一步分析探讨了 CLGDGR2014 后各类债务对绿色创新的影响，结果表明显性地方政府债务具有促进作用，而隐性地方政府债务的促进作用并不明显。总之，本研究为利用和管理地方政府债务以刺激绿色创新提供了新的见解。

引用次数: 0

Rectifying local governments’ strategic environmental enforcement: Can refined air pollution monitoring enhance local air quality in China? 整顿地方政府的战略性环境执法：精细化空气污染监测能否改善中国地方空气质量？

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.009

Insufficient local environmental enforcement has become a pivotal economic and political concern in China. In 2017, the Chinese central government introduced the Air Pollution Hot-Spot Grid (APHG) monitoring program. However, little is known about the consequences. This study investigates in detail how this monitoring program affects city-level air pollution by applying the difference-in-differences method. This program was responsible for a notable decrease in air pollution at the city level. This decrease was mostly the result of stronger local environmental governance, advances in green innovation, and an upgraded industrial structure. Additionally, an examination of heterogeneous treatment effects across different cities revealed that the most substantial effects were observed in large, non-resource-based, and eastern cities. Additional analysis reveals the presence of a spillover effect, whereby the adoption of this program in one city helps reduce air pollution in nearby cities. These results highlight the significance of refined air pollution monitoring for addressing imperfect local environmental enforcement.

地方环境执法力度不足已成为中国经济和政治方面的一个关键问题。2017 年，中国中央政府推出了大气污染热点网格（APHG）监测项目。然而，人们对其后果知之甚少。本研究采用差分法详细研究了该监测项目如何影响城市一级的空气污染。该计划使城市一级的空气污染明显减少。这种下降主要是由于地方环境治理的加强、绿色创新的进步以及产业结构的升级。此外，对不同城市异质性处理效果的研究表明，在大城市、非资源型城市和东部城市观察到的效果最为显著。其他分析表明了溢出效应的存在，即一个城市采用该计划有助于减少附近城市的空气污染。这些结果凸显了精细化空气污染监测对于解决地方环境执法不完善问题的重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Doing good in times of need: Green finance policy and strategic corporate social responsibility 在需要的时候做好事：绿色金融政策和战略性企业社会责任

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.008

This study investigates the effect of a green finance policy on the corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities of firms in heavily polluting industries. Based on the 2017 policy of the People's Bank of China (PBC), which incorporates green finance into its macroprudential assessment system, we employ the difference-in-differences method to show that firms in heavily polluting industries have significantly improved their CSR performance after the implementation of the PBC's green finance policy. In response to the negative effect of the PBC's policy on their financial position, affected firms strategically engage in CSR activities in the hope that appearing socially responsible will help them recover from their adverse position. Furthermore, firms in heavily polluting industries that enhance their CSR performance after the PBC's policy have benefited from reduced bank credit transaction costs and have obtained more bank loans. The improvement in CSR performance is mainly concentrated in firms that are non-state-owned, small in size, highly dependent on external financing, and receiving more media attention. Overall, this study reveals a social consequence of the PBC's green finance policy on the CSR performance.

本研究探讨了绿色金融政策对重污染行业企业社会责任（CSR）活动的影响。基于中国人民银行（PBC）2017年将绿色金融纳入宏观审慎评估体系的政策，我们采用差分法表明，在中国人民银行绿色金融政策实施后，重污染行业企业的企业社会责任绩效得到了显著改善。由于中国人民银行的政策对其财务状况产生了负面影响，受影响的企业有策略地参与企业社会责任活动，希望以社会责任的形象帮助其从不利地位中恢复过来。此外，重污染行业的企业在中国人民银行的政策出台后提高了企业社会责任表现，从而受益于银行信贷交易成本的降低，获得了更多的银行贷款。企业社会责任绩效的提高主要集中在非国有企业、规模较小、高度依赖外部融资以及媒体关注度较高的企业。总体而言，本研究揭示了中国人民银行绿色金融政策对企业社会责任绩效的社会影响。

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引用次数: 0

Promoting green technology innovation through policy synergy: Evidence from the dual pilot policy of low-carbon city and innovative city 通过政策协同促进绿色技术创新：来自低碳城市和创新型城市双试点政策的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.005

Green technology innovation (GTI) is the key to overcoming the dilemma between economic development and environmental protection, requiring integrates environmental regulatory policies and innovation incentive policies to counteract its double externalities. This study examined the effects of the dual pilot policy (DPP) of low-carbon city pilot policy (LCCPP) and innovative city pilot policy (ICPP) on GTI based on panel data from 281 prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2007 to 2022. We found that DPP significantly improves both substantive green technology innovation (SUGTI) and strategic green technology innovations (STGTI), with a more pronounced effect identified on STGTI. LCCPP and ICPP demonstrate a policy-synergistic effect and a more sustainable and powerful influence compared to the single pilot policy of LCCPP or ICPP. Mechanism analysis reveals that DPP corrects the positive externalities of innovative knowledge by improving innovation subsidies, independent innovation capabilities, and innovation efficiency. DPP also corrects the negative externalities of environmental pollution by promoting environmental services, industrial transformation, and cleaner production. This effect of DPP on GTI appears insignificant in western cities, cities with low industry agglomeration, cities with abundant resource, and cities with low environmental awareness. Moreover, DPP engenders a demonstration effect for neighboring cities in their GTI. Our findings reveal that intensifying the policy synergy effects of LCCPP and ICPP can more efficiently and sustainably promote SUGTI and STGTI. To maximize the synergistic effects of LCCPP and ICPP, it is essential to strength the green effect of LCCPP and the innovative effect of ICPP, integrating various policy tools to complement and reinforce each other.

绿色技术创新（GTI）是克服经济发展与环境保护之间两难困境的关键，需要整合环境监管政策和创新激励政策来抵消其双重外部性。本研究基于 2007 年至 2022 年中国 281 个地级市的面板数据，考察了低碳城市试点政策（LCCPP）和创新型城市试点政策（ICPP）双试点政策（DPP）对 GTI 的影响。我们发现，低碳城市试点政策对实质性绿色技术创新（SUGTI）和战略性绿色技术创新（STGTI）均有明显改善，其中对战略性绿色技术创新的影响更为明显。与 LCCPP 或 ICPP 的单一试点政策相比，LCCPP 和 ICPP 显示出政策协同效应和更持续、更强大的影响力。机制分析表明，DPP 通过提高创新补贴、自主创新能力和创新效率，纠正了创新知识的正外部性。DPP 还通过促进环境服务、产业转型和清洁生产来纠正环境污染的负外部性。在西部城市、产业集聚程度低的城市、资源丰富的城市和环境意识淡薄的城市，DPP 对 GTI 的影响并不明显。此外，DPP 对周边城市的 GTI 产生了示范效应。我们的研究结果表明，强化 LCCPP 和 ICPP 的政策协同效应可以更有效、更可持续地促进 SUGTI 和 STGTI。为了最大限度地发挥 LCCPP 和 ICPP 的协同效应，必须强化 LCCPP 的绿色效应和 ICPP 的创新效应，整合各种政策工具，使其相互补充、相互促进。

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引用次数: 0

Does tax refund policy boost executive compensation? 退税政策会提高高管薪酬吗？

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.030

Tax reforms have a profound impact on corporate compensation. While existing research has extensively examined the effects of tax cuts and breaks on corporate compensation, the relationship between tax refunds and executive compensation remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, this paper employs a difference-in-differences approach to investigate the causal effect of China’s value-added tax credit refund policy on executive compensation. The findings reveal that the tax refund policy increases executive compensation, primarily by enhancing net income, which lays the financial foundation for higher executive compensation. These effects also exhibit heterogeneity across corporate regions, life cycle stages, ownership structures, and executive categories. This paper is the first to explore the relationship between tax refunds and executive compensation, providing valuable insights into how external tax policies influence corporate internal incentive structures.

税制改革对企业薪酬影响深远。虽然现有研究已广泛考察了减税和免税对企业薪酬的影响，但退税与高管薪酬之间的关系在很大程度上仍未得到探讨。针对这一空白，本文采用差分法研究了中国增值税抵扣退税政策对高管薪酬的因果效应。研究结果表明，退税政策主要通过增加净收入来提高高管薪酬，而净收入为提高高管薪酬奠定了财务基础。这些影响在不同地区、不同生命周期阶段、不同所有权结构和不同高管类别的企业中也表现出异质性。本文首次探讨了退税与高管薪酬之间的关系，为了解外部税收政策如何影响企业内部激励结构提供了宝贵的见解。

引用次数: 0

Driving economic transition: The impact of cross-border e-commerce policy on the upgrading of service industry structure 推动经济转型：跨境电商政策对服务业结构升级的影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.001

Cross-border e-commerce, as an innovative format and model of international trade, plays a crucial role in accelerating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures, and shaping a modern economic framework. Using panel data from 260 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019, this study investigates the impact of the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area (CBECCPA) policy on the upgrading of service industry structure and its mechanisms using the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) method. The results show that the CBECCPA policy can significantly promote the upgrading of service industry structure. The mechanism analysis reveals that the CBECCPA policy can promote the upgrading of service industry structure by clustering service industry enterprises, bolstering urban innovation, and increasing the scale of trade. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impact of the CBECCPA policy on the information transmission, software, and information technology service industry is more pronounced and the policy effect is stronger for those with a lower level of service industry structure and for pilot areas with higher levels of development, developmental foundation, developmental scale, and developmental innovation. Furthermore, the policy effect varies significantly across cities. This study provides empirical evidence and policy insights into the role of the CBECCPA in the upgrading of service industry structure.

跨境电商作为国际贸易的创新业态和模式，在加快产业结构转型升级、塑造现代经济框架方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究利用2003-2019年中国260个地级市的面板数据，采用交错差分法（DID）研究了跨境电子商务综合试验区（CBECCPA）政策对服务业结构升级的影响及其机制。结果表明，CBECCPA 政策能够显著促进服务业结构升级。机制分析表明，CBECCPA 政策可以通过集聚服务业企业、支持城市创新和扩大贸易规模来促进服务业结构升级。异质性分析表明，CBECCPA 政策对信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业的影响更加明显，对服务业结构水平较低的地区和发展水平、发展基础、发展规模、发展创新能力较强的试点地区的政策效应更强。此外，不同城市的政策效应也存在显著差异。本研究为《中英两国经济合作框架协议》在服务业结构升级中的作用提供了经验证据和政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Extreme time-frequency connectedness between energy sector markets and financial markets 能源行业市场与金融市场之间的极端时频关联性

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.027

The renewable energy market has developed into a distinct asset class that has garnered significant attention from investors worldwide. This study investigates the connectedness between the S&P 500 and various energy sectors, including the Green Bond (Green Bond), S&P GSCI Carbon Emission Allowances Index (GSCI EUA), S&P GSCI Biofuel (GSCI Biofuel), and S&P Global Clean Energy Indices (Global Clean Energy). Combining the quantile connectedness approach of Ando et al. (2022) and the spillover index developed by Chatziantoniou et al. (2022), we investigate the quantile time-frequency connectedness among these markets. Our findings reveal that the impact of tail risk spreading to the energy sector during extremely challenging market conditions is significantly amplified. Most tail risk spillovers between the energy sectors involve short-term risk spillovers, as seen by analyzing the frequency domain. The impact of tail risk spillover is stronger during extreme situations, showing a short-term asymmetry. Global Clean Energy and the S&P 500 play important roles in spreading risk to other sectors, known as tail risk spillover. They add to the overall risk that affects the network system. On the other hand, other energy sectors (GSCI EUA and GSCI Biofuel) as well as green bonds act as net recipients by receiving the risk rather than spreading it further, potentially providing portfolio diversification. It is essential to understand how these key players influence risk in the financial system. Utilizing a variety of techniques to assess portfolio performance shows the importance of understanding the return transmission mechanism in the process of developing a portfolio and suggests that Clean Energy, given its relative independence, may make an excellent diversification investment.

可再生能源市场已发展成为一个独特的资产类别，受到全球投资者的高度关注。本研究调查了 S&P 500 指数与各种能源板块之间的关联性，包括绿色债券（Green Bond）、S&P GSCI 碳排放配额指数（GSCI EUA）、S&P GSCI 生物燃料（GSCI Biofuel）和 S&P 全球清洁能源指数（Global Clean Energy）。结合 Ando 等人（2022 年）的量化关联方法和 Chatziantoniou 等人（2022 年）开发的溢出指数，我们研究了这些市场之间的量化时间频率关联性。我们的研究结果表明，在极具挑战性的市场条件下，尾部风险扩散到能源行业的影响被显著放大。从频域分析来看，能源行业之间的尾部风险溢出大多涉及短期风险溢出。在极端情况下，尾部风险溢出的影响更大，显示出短期的不对称性。全球清洁能源和 S&P 500 指数在向其他行业扩散风险方面发挥着重要作用，即所谓的尾部风险溢出。它们增加了影响网络系统的整体风险。另一方面，其他能源板块（GSCI EUA 和 GSCI 生物燃料）以及绿色债券则作为净接受者，接受风险而不是进一步分散风险，从而有可能提供投资组合多样化。了解这些关键参与者如何影响金融体系的风险至关重要。利用各种技术评估投资组合的绩效表明，在制定投资组合的过程中，了解回报传导机制非常重要，并表明清洁能源由于其相对独立性，可能是一种极好的分散投资。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana on Indian households Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana 对印度家庭的影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.026

This study critically evaluates the impact of the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) on LPG accessibility among poor households in India. Using Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences estimators and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) dataset, the Average Treatment Effect on the intendedly Treated is a modest 2.1 percentage point increase in LPG consumption due to PMUY, with a parallel decrease in firewood consumption. Regional analysis reveals differential impacts, with significant progress in the North, West, and South but less pronounced effects in the East and North East. The study also underscores variance across social groups, with Scheduled Caste households showing the most substantial benefits, while Scheduled Tribes households are hardly affected. Despite the PMUY’s initial success in facilitating LPG access, sustaining its usage remains challenging. Policy should emphasise targeted interventions and address regional and community-specific disparities for the sustained usage of LPG.

本研究批判性地评估了 Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana（PMUY）计划对印度贫困家庭液化石油气可及性的影响。利用倾向得分匹配和差分估计法以及全国家庭健康调查（NFHS）数据集，"普拉丹-曼特里-乌贾瓦拉计划 "对预期受治疗者的平均治疗效果是，"普拉丹-曼特里-乌贾瓦拉计划 "使液化石油气消费量略微增加了 2.1 个百分点，同时木柴消费量也有所减少。区域分析显示了不同的影响，北部、西部和南部取得了显著进展，而东部和东北部的影响则不太明显。研究还强调了社会群体之间的差异，在册种姓家庭受益最大，而在册部落家庭几乎不受影响。尽管 "石油气普及计划 "在促进液化石油气的使用方面取得了初步成效，但维持其使用仍具有挑战性。政策应强调有针对性的干预措施，并解决地区和社区的具体差异，以便持续使用液化石油气。

引用次数: 0