Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

英文中文

From restriction to relaxation: The impact of fertility policy on household savings across countries

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.055

Liang Chang , Xiaojun Liang , Na Tan , Shuting Liang

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of fertility policy adjustments on household saving rates using a panel data policy evaluation approach. We examine seven Asian regions that initially implemented restrictive fertility policies and later relaxed them, providing a unique empirical context for understanding the economic impact of such policy shifts. The analysis indicates that early restrictive fertility policies had a significant impact on the household saving rate, resulting in increases ranging from 4 to 21 % across countries. However, the subsequent relaxation of these policies had mostly insignificant effects on household savings rates, with the exception of Japan. Specifically, the implementation of fertility restriction policies in China, Hong Kong (China), Malaysia, and Singapore is associated with a 4 to 10 % increase in the household saving rate. In Korea, these policies lead to an increase of 18.3 %, and in Iran, the effect is most pronounced, with a 21 % increase in the household saving rate. In contrast, the relaxation of family planning policies in Japan resulted in a 6.4 % decrease in the household savings rate. These results provide new quantitative evidence on the impact of fertility on household saving rates, support the life-cycle theory of saving, and provide explanations for the differential impact of such policy adjustments.

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引用次数: 0

Issuance of urban investment bonds and high-quality urban economic development

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.025

Liuzhen Zhang , Wunhong Su

High-quality economic development is a significant issue in China's new era, wherein an active government plays a crucial role in the rational allocation of public resources. This study examines the impact of urban investment bond issuance on the high-quality development of urban economies using panel data from Chinese cities. It further explores the specific mechanisms and regional heterogeneity of this impact. By clarifying the fundamental attributes and channels of influence of urban investment bonds, this study incorporates regional debt elements as a unique factor into the spatial Durbin model to investigate their specific spatial spillover effects, aiming to broaden and enrich economic growth theory. The findings reveal that urban investment bond issuance significantly promotes high-quality urban economic development and has a positive spatial spillover effect. The primary mechanisms include alleviating fiscal pressure, enhancing research and development expenditure, and increasing educational spending. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the promotion effect of urban investment bonds on high-quality urban economic development is not significant in central and western cities. This study provides theoretical and practical insights into accurately understanding the relationship between government-issued urban investment bonds and high-quality economic development and aids different regions and cities in identifying their unique positions to implement tailored debt issuance strategies.

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引用次数: 0

Beyond the ivory tower: Professors on the board and corporate performance in China

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.024

Zhisheng Li , Jiazhu Pang , Xinxin Jing

Professors are prevalent on boards of directors. Using manually collected data on professor-directors in Chinese A-share listed firms, we find that they make positive contributions to corporate performance. In contrast to previous findings in the U.S. context, we show that administrative professors in China perform as well as, if not better than, non-administrative professors when serving as independent directors. Our results remain robust when we use both the instrumental variables approach and event study approach to address endogeneity concerns. Further analyses provide evidence for the advising and monitoring channels through which professor-directors in China affect firm performance. Specifically, they are more likely to be appointed as chairpersons of board committees and to dissent in board voting; they also benefit their firms by improving investment efficiency and corporate governance. Our findings highlight the importance of cultural and institutional backgrounds in determining the effectiveness of governance mechanisms.

教授在董事会中十分普遍。通过人工收集中国 A 股上市公司中教授董事的数据，我们发现他们对公司业绩做出了积极贡献。与之前在美国的研究结果不同，我们发现中国的行政管理类教授在担任独立董事时的表现与非行政管理类教授不相上下，甚至更好。当我们使用工具变量法和事件研究法来解决内生性问题时，我们的结果仍然是稳健的。进一步的分析为中国教授董事影响公司业绩的建议和监督渠道提供了证据。具体而言，他们更有可能被任命为董事会委员会主席，也更有可能在董事会投票中提出异议；他们还能通过提高投资效率和改善公司治理使公司受益。我们的研究结果凸显了文化和制度背景在决定治理机制有效性方面的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Reformation of government officials’ performance evaluation and corporate environmental investment: The moderating effect of corporate bargaining power

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.019

Qiang Li , Zichun He , Wenjuan Ruan , Yulei Xia , Qingting Cai

With increasing deterioration of the environment and growing global environmental awareness, there is a need to reform the performance evaluation of government officials from focusing solely on economic growth to incorporating environmental protection indicators. We use the pilot scheme of China's natural resource accountability audit (NRAA) as a natural experiment. Using data for 2010–2022 from Chinese listed companies in heavily polluting industries, we apply a difference-in-differences (DID) model to test the impact of the NRAA policy on corporate environmental investment (CEI) and further examine the moderating role of corporate bargaining power. The empirical results demonstrate that the level of CEI in pilot cities is significantly higher than that in non-pilot cities. However, if firms possess stronger bargaining power, the positive effect of the policy on CEI diminishes. Further analysis reveals that the influence of corporate bargaining power on the effectiveness of the policy can be constrained within the context of better internal and external governance. China's experience provides a viable approach for integrating environmental governance into a more comprehensive framework of performance evaluation systems for government officials.

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引用次数: 0

Does the incentive policy for renewable energy grid connection affect the technical efficiency of power grid companies? Empirical analysis based on China and Japan

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.020

Biao Li , Bai-Chen Xie , Xiao-Chen Yu , Zhen-Yu She , Wenhao Hu

The widespread adoption of renewable energy sources, which are characterized by intermittency, uncertainty, and uneven geographical distribution, has significantly influenced power grid operating efficiency. This study employs the meta-frontier model to assess the impact of varying degrees of renewable energy development in China and Japan from 2008 to 2022 on the efficiency of 40 power grid companies. The research reveals that the rapid increase in renewable energy generation has posed significant challenges to grid management, leading to a decline in grid company technical efficiency. Despite implementing entirely different renewable energy incentive policies, both China and Japan have encountered a detrimental effect on the efficiency of their power grids. However, over time, the adverse impact of renewable energy on grid efficiency has shown signs of attenuation. This positive trend is partly attributable to measures such as enhanced infrastructure development and improved technical standards, which have effectively mitigated the negative effects of renewable energy integration on grid operations. Based on these findings, the study emphasizes the importance of bolstering grid infrastructure and fostering technological innovations to minimize the disruptive effects of renewable energy on grid efficiency.

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引用次数: 0

The impact of artificial intelligence on global energy vulnerability 人工智能对全球能源脆弱性的影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.021

Qingyuan Zhu , Chenhao Sun , Chengzhen Xu , Qianqian Geng

Investigating the effect of artificial intelligence (AI) on energy vulnerability (EVI) is crucial to understanding how technological advances are changing the resilience and sustainability of energy systems. However, their quantitative relationship still lacks empirical evidence. This study first constructs the EVI of 54 global economies from the perspective of energy security, energy consumption, energy efficiency, and energy availability from 2000 to 2019. Then, a fixed-effect model is employed to investigate the relationship between AI and EVI. Results show that (1) AI can considerably reduce global EVI. The core findings remain reliable after several robustness checks. (2) Mechanism analysis implies that AI can reduce EVI by promoting financial development and technological progress. (3) Heterogeneity analysis implies that the impeding role of AI on EVI is more pronounced in countries with low incomes and industrialization levels. Furthermore, the hindering effect of AI on EVI is strengthened after Industry 4.0 and the financial crisis. Some policy implications are further proposed accordingly to reduce global EVI.

研究人工智能（AI）对能源脆弱性（EVI）的影响，对于了解技术进步如何改变能源系统的复原力和可持续性至关重要。然而，它们之间的定量关系仍然缺乏实证证据。本研究首先从能源安全、能源消耗、能源效率和能源可用性的角度构建了 2000 年至 2019 年全球 54 个经济体的能源脆弱性指数。然后，采用固定效应模型研究人工智能与经济脆弱性指数之间的关系。结果表明：(1) 人工智能可以显著降低全球经济脆弱性指数。经过多次稳健性检验，核心结论仍然可靠。(2）机制分析表明，人工智能可以通过促进金融发展和技术进步来降低经济脆弱性指数。(3）异质性分析表明，人工智能对经济脆弱性指数的阻碍作用在低收入和工业化水平较低的国家更为明显。此外，在工业 4.0 和金融危机之后，人工智能对经济脆弱性指数的阻碍作用更加明显。据此，进一步提出了一些政策影响，以减少全球经济脆弱性指数。

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引用次数: 0

Unveiling the shadows: The effects of financial conditions on the tail risks of China's macroeconomic activities 揭开阴影金融条件对中国宏观经济活动尾部风险的影响

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.018

Han Liu , Lijun Wang , Xingxuan Zhuo

The impact of financial conditions on Chinese macroeconomic activities has recently received considerable attention. This paper utilizes a constructed Chinese financial conditions index (FCI) to appraise the role of financial conditions in Chinese growth at risk, and further traces the influencing factors of tail risks of macroeconomic activities. The findings reveal that financial conditions may lead to an increase in future tail risks for macroeconomic activities, and financial conditions are associated more with downside risks than with upside potential. Moreover, the extension degree of financial conditions in relation to the tail risks of macroeconomic activities displays time-varying and heterogeneous characteristics. In particular, financial conditions have a more pronounced effect on the tail risks of investment growth. Additionally, this paper provides direct evidence from a financial perspective, suggesting that M2 is a common factor of the tail risks of macroeconomic activities, and treasury yields play a crucial role in tail risks related to consumption growth. Simultaneously, the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi Yuan emerges as a vital factor in tail risks regarding import and export growth. Our results provide valuable insights for the government in addressing macroeconomic risks and formulating relevant policies.

近期，金融条件对中国宏观经济活动的影响受到广泛关注。本文利用构建的中国金融条件指数（FCI）来评价金融条件在中国经济增长风险中的作用，并进一步追溯宏观经济活动尾部风险的影响因素。研究结果表明，金融条件可能导致未来宏观经济活动的尾部风险增加，并且金融条件与下行风险的相关性大于上行潜力。此外，金融条件对宏观经济活动尾部风险的扩展程度呈现出时变和异质性特征。其中，金融条件对投资增长尾部风险的影响更为明显。此外，本文还从金融角度提供了直接证据，表明 M2 是宏观经济活动尾部风险的共同因素，而国债收益率在与消费增长相关的尾部风险中发挥着至关重要的作用。同时，人民币实际有效汇率也是进出口增长尾部风险的一个重要因素。我们的研究结果为政府应对宏观经济风险和制定相关政策提供了有价值的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Shadow banking contraction and employment decisions in manufacturing firms: Empirical evidence from China's new asset management regulations

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.016

Zhengrong Yuan , Qiuzuo Yu

This study represents the inaugural exploration utilizing the 2018 "New Asset Management Regulation" (NAMR) as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the repercussions of the reduced scale of shadow banking, prompted by the regulation, on the employment scale of enterprises. Analyzing a dataset comprising Chinese manufacturing companies listed from 2015 to 2020, the empirical findings indicate a significant decline in the labor employment scale of companies exhibiting higher financialization levels post-implementation of the NAMR, as opposed to those with lower financialization levels. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy heightens financing constraints and escalates debt default risks, thereby hindering employment in enterprises. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates a more pronounced negative impact on employment in companies characterized by higher long-term use of short-term debt, diminished growth prospects, heightened involvement in shadow banking, and increased development levels in local shadow banking. Additionally, the policy primarily limits the employment size in firms that finance or engage in arbitrage through shadow banking, while also reducing the demand for low-educated labor within these firms. This study enhances understanding of the impact of shadow banking on the real economy. Moreover, it offers valuable insights for advancing the standardization and market-oriented development of asset management businesses.

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引用次数: 0

Does the Air Pollution Joint Prevention and Control Policy Work: Evidence from China 大气污染联防联控政策是否有效？来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.013

Qin Xiao , Yixiao Jin , Rong Yu , Enze Zhang , Yuechuan Zhao

Developing countries face significant challenges in managing regional air pollution. While previous studies show the benefits of the Air Pollution Joint Prevention and Control (AJPC) policy, there needs to be more understanding of its implementation challenges. Using data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China and applying a tripartite evolutionary game (TEG) model along with a difference-in-differences (DID) method, our study talks about the effectiveness of AJPC policy. We find that the AJPC policy has positively impacted air quality. However, its effectiveness varies across regions and periods, making it difficult to achieve the original goals. Additionally, we identified challenges to implementing the policy, such as free-riding from governance spillover, the instability of central government regulation, and the limited policy-carrying capacity of micro-entities. Our findings highlight the complexity of regional pollution control and provide critical insights for refining pollution management strategies in developing countries, offering valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to enhance regional air quality control.

发展中国家在管理区域空气污染方面面临巨大挑战。虽然以往的研究显示了大气污染联防联控（AJPC）政策的益处，但还需要对其实施过程中的挑战有更多了解。利用中国京津冀（BTH）地区的数据，运用三方演化博弈（TEG）模型和差分法（DID），我们的研究探讨了大气污染联防联控政策的有效性。我们发现，AJPC 政策对空气质量产生了积极影响。但是，该政策在不同地区和不同时期的效果各不相同，因此很难实现最初的目标。此外，我们还发现了实施该政策所面临的挑战，如治理溢出带来的搭便车现象、中央政府监管的不稳定性以及微观实体的政策执行能力有限。我们的研究结果凸显了区域污染控制的复杂性，为完善发展中国家的污染管理策略提供了重要启示，为旨在加强区域空气质量控制的政策制定者提供了宝贵的指导。

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引用次数: 0

Does regional integration promote the improvement of the green production efficiency of tourism industry?

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.003

Di Xu , Pengfei Shi , Chunyan Wu , Yu Diao

This paper clarifies the essential connotation and mutual mechanism of regional integration and the green production efficiency of tourism industry (GPET) and verifies the effect of regional integration on the GPET. The results show that: (1) The GPET under the influence of regional integration shows an overall growth trend, the internal differences are gradually narrowing, and there exists significant spatial autocorrelation in the spatial pattern, with the High-High agglomeration in the east and the Low-Low agglomeration in the west. (2) Regional integration has a significant positive contribution to the GPET, but the spillover effect is not obvious. (3) The opening up and employment scale can significantly promote the GPET, but the local government's ability to intervene in the market, economic density and intensity of environmental regulation have the significant negative impact on the level of GPET in local. (4) Regional integration to promote high GPET is characterized by “multiple concurrency” and “asymmetry”. The types of high GPET drivers include “traveler flow-economic development” and “environmental protection-social security”.

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引用次数: 0

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