Snow avalanche in the Indian Himalayas: Hazard zonation and climate change trends in Kullu region of Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

This research provides an in-depth analysis of snow avalanche behavior in the Indian Himalayas, specifically targeting the Kullu region. The study integrates climate data, terrain characteristics and field validations to apply Object-Based Image Segmentation (OBIS) analysis for more precise hazard zonation. Over the past few decades, the region has experienced a notable increase in avalanche frequency and intensity, correlating these changes with climatic factors such as rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and anthropogenic influences like infrastructure development. The study emphasizes the complex interplay between meteorological variables—including snow temperature, wind speed etc. and the topographical features contributing to avalanche susceptibility. OBIS, supported by field surveys and literature, allows for a refined identification of high-risk avalanche zones, significantly enhancing prediction models. The findings also reveal that climate change trends are expected to amplify the frequency and magnitude of avalanche occurrences in the future, posing heightened risks to local populations, infrastructure and the region's biodiversity. The study contributes critical insights for developing robust risk management and climate adaptation strategies by systematically identifying avalanche-prone areas and analysing climate change projections. These strategies are essential for safeguarding vulnerable mountain communities and ecosystems. The broader implications of this research extend beyond the Indian Himalayas, contributing to the global understanding of avalanche dynamics and highlighting the need for comprehensive climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction frameworks in high-altitude regions.