Archetypes of settlement development on the Swiss Plateau: Identification, description and prediction

Abstract

The rapid and impactful growth of urban areas necessitates a thorough understanding of settlement development pathways to inform effective urban planning. This study investigates settlement developments on the Swiss Plateau from 1899 to 2021, focusing on identifying, describing, and predicting archetypes of settlement development. Using historical maps, we classified neighborhood types by urban form as a proxy for use and density, then analyzed their composition in each of 1999 settlements across 11 time-steps. By clustering the resulting time series, we identified five distinct archetypes of settlement development. We found that settlement size and proximity to other settlements are related to the development archetype. Distance to train stations and highway ramps influence the likelihood of settlements evolving into specific archetypes. By employing predictive modeling, it was demonstrated that the settlement characteristics of the earliest time step allow for the prediction of the development archetype. Consequently, the predictive model was utilized to predict future archetypes of contemporary settlements. Some settlements' predicted future archetypes differed from their historical ones, indicating potential transitions and opportunities for urban planners to guide these changes. The research highlights how understanding settlement dynamics and the role of key drivers can help urban planners guide development towards desirable pathways.