The intention-behavior gap in climate change adaptation: Evidence from longitudinal survey data

Abstract

Using a large unique longitudinal survey data set from Germany covering more than 5000 households, we analyze stated intentions and actual implementations of both flood-proofing and heat stress reduction measures to assess the intention behavior gap (IBG) in climate change adaptation. Our results do not only reveal a substantial IBG for most stated intentions, but also show their limits in serving as a good predictor for realized actions later. Moreover, the IBG itself can hardly be explained by observable household data characteristics. While we do find some similarities in explanatory variables affecting both intentions and implementations, these variables provide only little insights into the actual levels of implemented actions. In line with regret theory, the IBG in our data can be partly explained by anticipated regret caused by a feeling of having invested in vain in cases where adaptation measures are installed, but extreme weather events do not occur for the time being. Our results are informative for adaptation-related communication campaigns and public policy interventions, especially in the aftermath of natural disasters.