Spatio-temporal modeling of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis under climate change scenarios in the Maghreb region (2021–2100)

Abstract

Introduction

Climate change presents a significant challenge to global public health, especially regarding vector-borne diseases such as cutaneous leishmaniasis. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the distribution of CL in North Africa, with a focus on Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco.

Methods

We analyzed historical epidemiological and climatic data from 2000 to 2020 and employed a Generalized Additive Model to assess the influence of climatic variables including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation on CL incidence. Additionally, climate projection data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the RCP 2.6 scenario were utilized to predict future CL incidence from 2021 to 2100.

Results

The findings indicate an increase in CL cases in Mediterranean coastal areas, particularly in eastern Tunisia, Algeria, and parts of Morocco, due to rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. The analysis revealed varying temporal peaks in CL incidence across the three countries: short-term for Algeria (2025), mid-term for Morocco (2065), and long-term for Tunisia (2085).

Conclusions

This study underscores the need for region-specific surveillance and response systems and emphasizes the importance of integrating climate forecasts into public health strategies to mitigate the risks of CL spread under changing climatic conditions in North Africa.