Paleo-Earthquake Fingerprints and Along-Strike Slip Variation of the Silent Mt. Morrone Normal Fault (Central Italy): A Structural-Geochemical Approach

Abstract

This study provides insights into the tectonic evolution of the normal Mt Morrone Fault System (MMFS) in Central Italy and highlights the utility of multidisciplinary approaches in reconstructing the seismic history of dormant fault systems. The MMFS comprises two parallel normal faults that traverse the western slope of Mt. Morrone, and although the system can produce M > 6 earthquakes, it has been aseismic in post Roman times. Here, we combine geochemical analysis of carbonate fault-scarp samples with new structural fault data and Lidar-based topographic analysis to provide new constraints on fault geometries and kinematics, the paleo-earthquake history of MMFS since the Last Glacial Maximum and its slip rates. Structural analysis reveals kinematic similarities between the two parallel strands, reflecting their response to the same stress regime. Rare Earth Elements analyses on 53 limestone samples reveal a minimum of eight concentration fluctuations upscarp, here interpreted as tectonic exhumation of the fault scarp due to post LGM earthquakes. Slip per event ranges from 30 to 110 cm typical of earthquakes with 6.3 ≤ M ≤ 6.8. Lidar analysis reveals triangular slip profiles on both fault strands. We estimate that an earthquake with an average M = 6.5–6.6 would have a recurrence interval of ∼2,125 ± 125 years. Slip rates were calculated to be 0.5–0.65 mm/yr on the lower and 0.65–0.7 mm/yr on the upper fault strand, with the combined system having slip rates of 0.62–0.69 mm/yr. Our findings indicate that both strands of the MMFS are active and accumulate slip interdependently, a finding that is critical for seismic hazard assessment.