{"title":"Global burden of central nervous system tumors and cancers in older adults: the global burden of disease study 2021.","authors":"Peng Liu, Lunxin Liu, Xiaoyin Liu, Gaowei Li, Liangxue Zhou","doi":"10.1007/s00415-025-12928-1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>This study aims to elucidate and predict the global disease burden and trends associated with central nervous system (CNS) tumors and cancers among older patients.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to calculate the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), death rate (ASDR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to assess burden and trends from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the global burden of CNS tumors and cancers in older patients over the next 30 years.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The ASIR among older adults worldwide increased by 3.59 cases per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2021, with an AAPC of 0.86%. The ASPR rose by 9.83 cases per 100,000 people, with an AAPC of 1.57%. The ASDR increased from 10.99 per 100,000 people to 13.01 per 100,000 people. DALYs also rose continuously from 234.21 per 10,000 population to 265.1, with an AAPC of 0.4%. It is anticipated that from 2021 to 2051, the ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs will exhibit a declining pattern; however, the ASPR will initially experience a slight decrease before gradually rising again.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The global burden has significantly increased from 1990 to 2021. Projections indicate that over the next 30 years, the total number of patients will rise, while the age-standardized rates will show a slow downward trend.</p>","PeriodicalId":16558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Neurology","volume":"272 3","pages":"200"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Neurology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00415-025-12928-1","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: This study aims to elucidate and predict the global disease burden and trends associated with central nervous system (CNS) tumors and cancers among older patients.
Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to calculate the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), death rate (ASDR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to assess burden and trends from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the global burden of CNS tumors and cancers in older patients over the next 30 years.
Results: The ASIR among older adults worldwide increased by 3.59 cases per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2021, with an AAPC of 0.86%. The ASPR rose by 9.83 cases per 100,000 people, with an AAPC of 1.57%. The ASDR increased from 10.99 per 100,000 people to 13.01 per 100,000 people. DALYs also rose continuously from 234.21 per 10,000 population to 265.1, with an AAPC of 0.4%. It is anticipated that from 2021 to 2051, the ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs will exhibit a declining pattern; however, the ASPR will initially experience a slight decrease before gradually rising again.
Conclusions: The global burden has significantly increased from 1990 to 2021. Projections indicate that over the next 30 years, the total number of patients will rise, while the age-standardized rates will show a slow downward trend.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Neurology is an international peer-reviewed journal which provides a source for publishing original communications and reviews on clinical neurology covering the whole field.
In addition, Letters to the Editors serve as a forum for clinical cases and the exchange of ideas which highlight important new findings. A section on Neurological progress serves to summarise the major findings in certain fields of neurology. Commentaries on new developments in clinical neuroscience, which may be commissioned or submitted, are published as editorials.
Every neurologist interested in the current diagnosis and treatment of neurological disorders needs access to the information contained in this valuable journal.
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