Global burden of central nervous system tumors and cancers in older adults: the global burden of disease study 2021.

IF 4.6 2区医学 Q1 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY Journal of Neurology Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI:10.1007/s00415-025-12928-1

Peng Liu, Lunxin Liu, Xiaoyin Liu, Gaowei Li, Liangxue Zhou

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Abstract

Background: This study aims to elucidate and predict the global disease burden and trends associated with central nervous system (CNS) tumors and cancers among older patients.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to calculate the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), death rate (ASDR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to assess burden and trends from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the global burden of CNS tumors and cancers in older patients over the next 30 years.

Results: The ASIR among older adults worldwide increased by 3.59 cases per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2021, with an AAPC of 0.86%. The ASPR rose by 9.83 cases per 100,000 people, with an AAPC of 1.57%. The ASDR increased from 10.99 per 100,000 people to 13.01 per 100,000 people. DALYs also rose continuously from 234.21 per 10,000 population to 265.1, with an AAPC of 0.4%. It is anticipated that from 2021 to 2051, the ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs will exhibit a declining pattern; however, the ASPR will initially experience a slight decrease before gradually rising again.

Conclusions: The global burden has significantly increased from 1990 to 2021. Projections indicate that over the next 30 years, the total number of patients will rise, while the age-standardized rates will show a slow downward trend.

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老年人中枢神经系统肿瘤和癌症的全球负担：2021年全球疾病负担研究

背景：本研究旨在阐明和预测与老年患者中枢神经系统（CNS）肿瘤和癌症相关的全球疾病负担和趋势。方法：使用全球疾病负担2021数据库的数据计算年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、患病率（ASPR）、死亡率（ASDR）、残疾调整生命年（DALYs）和平均年变化百分比（AAPC），以评估1990年至2021年的负担和趋势。应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来30年老年患者中枢神经系统肿瘤和癌症的全球负担。结果：1990年至2021年，全球老年人ASIR每10万人增加3.59例，AAPC为0.86%。每10万人中ASPR上升9.83例，AAPC为1.57%。ASDR从10.99 / 10万人增加到13.01 / 10万人。DALYs也从每万人口234.21人持续上升到265.1人，AAPC为0.4%。预计从2021年到2051年，ASIR、ASDR和年龄标准化DALYs将呈现下降趋势；然而，在再次逐渐上升之前，ASPR最初会经历轻微的下降。结论：从1990年到2021年，全球负担显著增加。预测表明，在未来30年，患者总数将上升，而年龄标准化率将呈现缓慢下降趋势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Neurology 医学-临床神经学

CiteScore

10.00

自引率

5.00%

发文量

558

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Neurology is an international peer-reviewed journal which provides a source for publishing original communications and reviews on clinical neurology covering the whole field. In addition, Letters to the Editors serve as a forum for clinical cases and the exchange of ideas which highlight important new findings. A section on Neurological progress serves to summarise the major findings in certain fields of neurology. Commentaries on new developments in clinical neuroscience, which may be commissioned or submitted, are published as editorials. Every neurologist interested in the current diagnosis and treatment of neurological disorders needs access to the information contained in this valuable journal.