Mapping the Numbers of Dementia in Brazil: A Delphi Consensus Study

IF 3.6 3区医学 Q2 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI:10.1002/gps.70055

Márlon Juliano Romero Aliberti, Claudia Kimie Suemoto, Jerson Laks, Paulo Caramelli, Sonia Maria Dozzi Brucki, Nicolas Farina, Daniel Apolinario, Einstein Francisco Camargos, Eleonora d'Orsi, Gilberto Sousa Alves, Karolina Gouveia César-Freitas, Luís Fernando Rangel, Márcia Lorena Fagundes Chaves, Marcos Antonio Lopes, Marcus Vinicius Della Coletta, Matheus Ghossain Barbosa, Norberto Anizio Ferreira Frota, Ricardo Nitrini, Cleusa Pinheiro Ferri

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

As the global dementia crisis intensifies, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a pressing need for comprehensive prevalence data across diverse regions, including Brazil, where studies have been predominantly limited to affluent urban centers. This study aimed to conduct an expert consensus to determine the prevalence of all-cause dementia in Brazil, considering various age groups, sexes, and geographical areas.

Methods

A Delphi consensus process with clinical and academic experts from across Brazil was conducted to provide dementia prevalence estimates in people aged ≥ 60 years living throughout Brazil for 2019. Each round consisted of answering structured questionnaires that incorporated information from the literature. A priori criteria were used to ascertain the point in which consensus was achieved for > 70% of the 15 prevalence estimates—for (1) total, (2) women and men, and (3) the five Brazilian macro-regions. The current and projected dementia cases in Brazil were calculated based on age and sex population distributions.

Results

Fifteen experts, with a mean professional experience of 25 ± 10 years, reached a consensus in the fourth round. Experts agreed with a mean all-cause dementia prevalence of 8.5% among Brazilians aged ≥ 60 years, which comprised 2.46 million people in 2019 in this age. They reported higher dementia rates in women (9.1%) than men (7.7%); the highest total prevalence was in those over 80 where it exceeds 20%. Regional variations were also noted, with lower prevalence in the South (7.3%) and higher in the North (8.9%) and Northeast (10.1%). Projections estimate that considering Brazil’s rapidly aging population, dementia cases will rise to 8.89 million by 2060.

Conclusions

This Delphi study estimated that dementia already affects roughly 1 in 12 older Brazilians aged 60 and above, with slightly higher prevalence in women and significant geographical variations. These results underscore the urgency for targeted public health strategies in Brazil and offer a framework for similar challenges in other LMICs, especially given that dementia cases are projected to increase by approximately 3.6 times in 4 decades.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry 医学-精神病学

CiteScore

6.10

自引率

2.50%

发文量

168

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The rapidly increasing world population of aged people has led to a growing need to focus attention on the problems of mental disorder in late life. The aim of the Journal is to communicate the results of original research in the causes, treatment and care of all forms of mental disorder which affect the elderly. The Journal is of interest to psychiatrists, psychologists, social scientists, nurses and others engaged in therapeutic professions, together with general neurobiological researchers. The Journal provides an international perspective on the important issue of geriatric psychiatry, and contributions are published from countries throughout the world. Topics covered include epidemiology of mental disorders in old age, clinical aetiological research, post-mortem pathological and neurochemical studies, treatment trials and evaluation of geriatric psychiatry services.