Rapid seismic damage assessment of building portfolio based on fusion of surrogate model and monitored data

IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105293
Guoqing Zhang , Kun Liu , Weiping Wen , Changhai Zhai , Chenyu Zhang , Bochang Zhou
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Abstract

Accurate and rapid estimation of regional seismic damage is vital for urban planning, scientific disaster preparedness, and emergency response. However, existing methods face challenges in quickly and accurately obtaining the linear and nonlinear parameters of regional building portfolios with limited building information, making it difficult to realize accurate and rapid regional structural damage assessments. This paper proposes a data fusion method that uses surrogate model and monitored data of building portfolios to rapidly acquire both linear and nonlinear parameters under conditions of limited building information, thereby enabling accurate and rapid assessment of regional seismic damage. To accelerate structural response calculations, the best surrogate model was obtained by comparing three Machine Learning (ML) algorithms tuned by the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm. Predicted responses by the surrogate model, and monitored responses were then fused using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and parallel computing to inverse the structural parameters. Finally, the target ground motions and the obtained structural parameters were input into the surrogate model for regional seismic damage assessment. To validate the proposed method, two cases with different sources of monitored data were presented. The results show that the errors between the predicted and actual values in structural damage state proportions under new ground motions for both two cases are within 5 % and the structural parameters closely match the actual situations. Additionally, the regional data fusions for various scales of building portfolios were conducted. The calculation speed improved by at least 5880 times faster compared to existing methods for different scales of building portfolios, demonstrating the capability of the proposed method to rapidly assess large-scale building portfolios.

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基于代理模型与监测数据融合的建筑组合震害快速评估
准确、快速地估计区域地震损失对城市规划、科学备灾和应急响应至关重要。然而,现有方法在有限的建筑信息下,难以快速准确地获取区域建筑组合的线性和非线性参数,难以实现准确、快速的区域结构损伤评估。本文提出了一种数据融合方法,利用替代模型和建筑组合监测数据,在建筑信息有限的情况下,快速获取线性和非线性参数,从而实现对区域震害的准确、快速评估。为了加速结构响应计算,通过比较贝叶斯优化(BO)算法调整的三种机器学习(ML)算法,获得最佳代理模型。然后利用粒子群算法(Particle Swarm Optimization, PSO)和并行计算技术将预测响应与监测响应进行融合,反演结构参数。最后,将目标地震动和得到的结构参数输入到区域震害评估的代理模型中。为了验证所提出的方法,给出了两个具有不同监测数据来源的案例。结果表明,两种情况下新地震动作用下结构损伤状态比例的预测值与实测值误差均在5%以内,结构参数与实际情况吻合较好。并对不同规模的建筑组合进行区域数据融合。对于不同规模的建筑组合,计算速度比现有方法提高了至少5880倍,表明该方法具有快速评估大型建筑组合的能力。
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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