Modified least squares ratio estimator for autocorrelated data: Estimation and prediction

Abstract

Autocorrelated errors in regression models make ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators inefficient, potentially leading to the misinterpretation of test procedures. Generalized least squares (GLS) estimation is a more efficient approach than OLS in the presence of autocorrelated errors. The GLS estimators based on Cochrane–Orcutt (COR) and Hildreth–Lu (HU) methods are the most commonly used to estimate unknown model parameters. This study investigates the impact of autocorrelation on parameter estimation and prediction in regression models and introduces a novel approach to address the challenge possessed by autocorrelated errors. In this paper, two modified GLS estimators based on the least square ratio method are proposed namely the Least Square Ratio-Cochrane–Orcutt Estimator (LSRE-COR) estimator and the Least Square Ratio-Hildreth–Lu (LSRE-HU) estimator. A Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with OLS, COR, HU, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), and least square ratio estimator (LSRE) based on total mean square error (TMSE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results show that the proposed LSRE-HU and LSRE-COR consistently outperform all other estimators across various levels of autocorrelation and numbers of regressors for moderately large samples. The effectiveness of these methods is illustrated through real-life applications.