A comprehensive assessment of rocket body related space debris and discussion of suitable means of risk reduction

Abstract

Rocket bodies account for about 50 % of the total debris mass currently orbiting the Earth. They contribute significantly to the consistent growth in space debris due to their high collision and fragmentation risk and represent a high on-ground risk in the event of an uncontrolled re-entry. As a compensatory measure, orbital rocket stages are to descend over the ocean by means of an active deorbit manoeuvre so that unburned parts no longer pose an acute danger. However, mitigating the negative environmental impacts of destructive atmospheric re-entry is becoming more of a priority due to the increasing space activities and growing knowledge about re-entry emissions. Hence, a non-destructive, controlled re-entry might be a possible alternative for large objects, which requires a “Design not to Demise” (Dnot2D). To evaluate the applicability of Dnot2D to rocket bodies, it is necessary to obtain a comprehensive understanding of their physical characteristics, the distribution of different vehicle types, and the quantities of relevant objects involved. Within this study, an in-depth evaluation of documented rocket body related space debris objects with a focus on their orbit, mitigation timelines, mass, and geometry, utilizing publicly available databases, is presented. Special attention is given to active systems as potential targets for mitigation measures with regard to environmental impact. Additionally, a parametric trajectory analysis is conducted to quantify the influence of key parameters relevant for Dnot2D, employing empirical methods. Finally, concrete measures for implementing a Dnot2D are discussed based on the results.