{"title":"Rest and financial judgments: The impact of holidays on analyst accuracy","authors":"Sima Jannati","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107399","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I examine whether holidays affect the forecast accuracy of equity analysts. I find that earnings forecasts issued after holidays are, on average, more accurate than those issued before. Economically, this effect is equivalent to the impact of 73 months of experience on analyst accuracy. Using heuristic behavior as a proxy for improved rest, I find that analysts’ use of heuristics declines after holidays. I examine and rule out greater information availability, increased attention, and changes in sentiment as alternative mechanisms. Overall, the results suggest that short breaks from work meaningfully improve the quality of analysts’ performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 107399"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Banking & Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426625000202","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
I examine whether holidays affect the forecast accuracy of equity analysts. I find that earnings forecasts issued after holidays are, on average, more accurate than those issued before. Economically, this effect is equivalent to the impact of 73 months of experience on analyst accuracy. Using heuristic behavior as a proxy for improved rest, I find that analysts’ use of heuristics declines after holidays. I examine and rule out greater information availability, increased attention, and changes in sentiment as alternative mechanisms. Overall, the results suggest that short breaks from work meaningfully improve the quality of analysts’ performance.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Banking and Finance (JBF) publishes theoretical and empirical research papers spanning all the major research fields in finance and banking. The aim of the Journal of Banking and Finance is to provide an outlet for the increasing flow of scholarly research concerning financial institutions and the money and capital markets within which they function. The Journal''s emphasis is on theoretical developments and their implementation, empirical, applied, and policy-oriented research in banking and other domestic and international financial institutions and markets. The Journal''s purpose is to improve communications between, and within, the academic and other research communities and policymakers and operational decision makers at financial institutions - private and public, national and international, and their regulators. The Journal is one of the largest Finance journals, with approximately 1500 new submissions per year, mainly in the following areas: Asset Management; Asset Pricing; Banking (Efficiency, Regulation, Risk Management, Solvency); Behavioural Finance; Capital Structure; Corporate Finance; Corporate Governance; Derivative Pricing and Hedging; Distribution Forecasting with Financial Applications; Entrepreneurial Finance; Empirical Finance; Financial Economics; Financial Markets (Alternative, Bonds, Currency, Commodity, Derivatives, Equity, Energy, Real Estate); FinTech; Fund Management; General Equilibrium Models; High-Frequency Trading; Intermediation; International Finance; Hedge Funds; Investments; Liquidity; Market Efficiency; Market Microstructure; Mergers and Acquisitions; Networks; Performance Analysis; Political Risk; Portfolio Optimization; Regulation of Financial Markets and Institutions; Risk Management and Analysis; Systemic Risk; Term Structure Models; Venture Capital.
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