Migration diplomacy and Greek–Turkish relations: A three-level game analysis

Abstract

Migration diplomacy has become a critical element of contemporary geopolitics, yet its complex dimensions remain underexplored. This article introduces a novel three-level game framework to examine how foreign policy strategies leverage cross-border mobility across domestic, bilateral and supranational dimensions. The 2020 Greek–Turkish border crisis serves as a case study to investigate how domestic political imperatives, bilateral disputes and engagement with European institutions shaped the two government' strategies. The study integrates process tracing with diverse multi-source data – including policy documents, media analysis and stakeholder interviews – to demonstrate how migration crises function as instruments of geopolitical contestation. This framework is also applied to cases, such as Morocco–Spain, Tunisia–EU and Belarus–EU, advancing theoretical and empirical understandings of migration diplomacy. The article provides fresh insights into the interplay between domestic politics, bilateral relations and supranational governance, illustrating how migration diplomacy is both a reflection and a driver of contemporary power dynamics in global geopolitics.