Dose tariff exposure stimulate city crimes? Evidence from China-US trade war

Abstract

This paper illuminates the impact of tariff exposure on city crimes by conducting a textual analysis of judgment documents from China Judgments Online. The findings reveal that cities experiencing higher tariff exposure tend to have a higher number of crimes, and this conclusion remains robust across various sensitivity analyses. On this basis, the paper further explores the heterogeneous impact of tariff exposure on city crimes. When considering city characteristics, it is observed that cities with younger populations and higher education levels are more susceptible to an increase in crime as tariff exposure increases. Additionally, resource-based and old industrial cities are more adversely affected by tariff exposure, which, in turn, exacerbates urban crime issues. From the perspective of case types, higher tariff exposure is correlated with an increase in Blue-collar crime, while its effect on White-collar crime is found to be insignificant. Furthermore, the study finds that tariff exposure reduces urban employment and income levels and increases negative psychological health among residents, which emerges as a significant pathway leading to criminal offenses.