Wildfire risk in Alaska: Spatial association between social vulnerability, wildfire hazard, and wildfire mitigation programs

Abstract

High-latitude regions are experiencing larger, longer, and more severe wildfires, leading to significant impacts on ecosystems and human societies. However, quantitative assessments of wildfire risk that consider both social and ecological characteristics are still lacking in these remote regions. Using Alaska as a case study, we quantified and mapped the association between social vulnerability, wildfire hazard potential, and selected wildfire mitigation activities (federal and state fuel treatment projects and Community Wildfire Protection Plans) to address this gap. We observed great variation in the associations. Remote regions in southcentral and interior Alaska displayed moderate-to-high social vulnerability and wildfire hazard potential, while urban areas exhibited lower social vulnerability regardless of wildfire hazard potential. Notably, state fuel treatments and CWPPs, which are concentrated near urban areas, generally showed a negative association with social vulnerability, though the CWPP–vulnerability association turned positive under high wildfire hazard in urban regions. In contrast, federal fuel treatment projects, which were widespread across the landscape, showed a consistent positive association with social vulnerability regardless of wildfire hazard potential and urban/rural divisions. Our results provide critical context for the policy challenges posed by escalating wildfire risk and inform the environmental justice implications of wildfire mitigation activities. This study contributes to larger-scale, global wildfire management assessments, offering guidance for equitable, context-specific wildfire management strategies in other regions facing increasing wildfire risks.