Political stability versus food self-sufficiency policy in arid countries: Evidence from the Persian Gulf

Abstract

This study aims to survey the effect of increasing political stability on avoiding the policy of food self-sufficiency in arid countries. For this purpose, the wheat self-sufficiency data of the Persian Gulf countries for the period of 2010–2021 were used. In the analysis, the wheat self-sufficiency index was considered a function of influential factors, including the political stability of the countries. Then, panel quantile regression and econometric tests were performed. The results show that each 1% increase in political stability leads, on average, to an approximately 8% decrease in self-sufficiency in wheat supply in the Gulf countries. However, this impact varies across countries; in such a way that increasing political stability in more politically stable countries has a greater effect on avoiding wheat self-sufficiency. The results also show that each 1% increase in GDP and biological capacity increases wheat self-sufficiency by an average of about 3% and 12%, respectively. These increases have a greater impact on supporting wheat self-sufficiency in more politically stable Gulf countries compared to less politically stable countries. Therefore, it was concluded that increased political stability would lead to more rational choices for arid countries in food supply management. Finally, it was emphasized using the commercial capacity of the Persian Gulf region to become the food hub of the world and avoiding regional tensions for cheaper and more reliable food trade and more stable food security.