Global and regional burden of kidney cancer due to high body index in adults from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2036.

Abstract

Monitoring the evolving global and regional burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI is vital for informing prevention and healthcare policies. This study aimed to evaluate historical trends in the global and regional burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2021 and to predict future trends through 2036 for individuals aged 20 years and older. We conducted a retrospective analysis using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. We analyzed data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) linked to kidney cancer from high BMI. Stratifications included sociodemographic index (SDI), region, sex, and age. Temporal trends were assessed using joinpoint regression models, while the relationship between SDI and regional burden was examined. Projections were generated using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. In 2021, high BMI contributed to 19.86% of global kidney cancer deaths (0.032 million) and 19.00% of DALYs (0.782 million), representing an increase since 1990. Globally, age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized disability rate have declined in recent years. However, rates have risen in developing regions such as South Asia and East Asia. Projections indicate stable global rates with slight fluctuations through 2036. The global kidney cancer burden attributable to high BMI shows signs of decline but continues to rise in some developing regions. Addressing this disparity requires strengthening obesity prevention and control strategies tailored to regional needs.