Extended drag-based model for better predicting the evolution of coronal mass ejections

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are one of the primary drivers of space weather disturbances, affecting both space-based and terrestrial technologies. The accurate prediction of CME trajectories and their arrival times at Earth is crucial for mitigating potential impacts. In this work, we introduce an extended drag-based model (EDBM) that incorporates an additional acceleration term to better capture the complex dynamics of CMEs as they propagate through the heliosphere. Preliminary results suggest that the EDBM can improve upon the classical drag-based model by providing more reliable estimates of CME travel times, particularly in cases where the CME experiences residual acceleration. However, further validation is required to fully assess the operational potential of the model for space weather forecasting. This study lays the groundwork for future investigations and applications, with the aim of enhancing the accuracy of CME prediction models.