Future of food: A technology-centered path towards sustainable production in 2100

Abstract

We stipulate a normatively desirable scenario for food production in 2100 and formulate a specific technology-centered path to reach it. In this scenario, the human population has increased following mainstream projections and food consumption patterns remain similar to current ones, while impacts on land systems, the biosphere, freshwater use, and eutrophying emissions from food production are substantially reduced (by more than 25 %). We divide the global diet into three categories: fruits and vegetables, grains, and animal products, which together represent 88 % of the food consumed currently. In each category, we select one technology with potential to contribute substantially to the desirable scenario: vertical farming for fruits and vegetables; genetically modified (GM) crops for improved photosynthesis of grains; and realistic plant- and microbe-based substitutes for animal products. Assuming widespread adoption of these technologies in 2100, we project that the area of farmland used, the amount of eutrophying emissions, and the freshwater used would decrease by 54 %, 46 %, and 32 %, respectively. We discuss adoption challenges and suggest policies for the implementation of these technologies, finding that increased public acceptance of alternatives to animal products and GM crops are crucial. Also, abundant access to affordable fossil-free energy is a prerequisite for two of the three recommended innovations.