Futures最新文献 - Book学术

Feminist urban futures: Envisioning the future of Ukrainian cities through the lens of the displaced community in Valencia (Spain) 女性主义城市未来：从巴伦西亚（西班牙）流离失所社区的视角展望乌克兰城市的未来

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103504

Oksana Udovyk , Ruth M-Domènech

Amidst the context of the ongoing war, Ukraine faces the challenge of reconstruction. Similarly to other post-disaster and post-conflict contexts, the recovery efforts are being guided by the principles of “Build Back Better” (BBB). While these principles can be interpreted as embracing the ideals of sustainability, the challenge lies in how "better" is defined, particularly when the concept is generally interpreted through a lens that prioritizes top-down planning with a focus on infrastructure and economic outputs. The concept of “better” needs to be rethought, particularly from the perspective of the affected populations. However, the viewpoints and experiences of internationally displaced Ukrainians are notably absent from these discussions.

This research proposes a participatory approach to envisioning urban recovery from displacement, centring on the experiences of displaced Ukrainians residing in Valencia, Spain. By working with this community, the study aims to redefine “better” in the context of urban recovery in Ukraine. Drawing on feminist urbanism, critical development perspectives and futures studies, the study investigates the intersectional oppressions and insights of displaced individuals, through workshops, interviews, and photovoice methodologies.

The findings highlight a collective vision that prioritizes emotional resilience, social cohesion and care, with participants prioritizing community-oriented green spaces, inclusive public services, and sustainable mobility. These insights challenge conventional interpretations of BBB in traditional recovery models, which often focus on measurable economic outcomes and risk-perpetuating "destructive reconstruction". Instead, this research advocates for a more inclusive, sustainable, and socially just recovery process that honours the diverse needs and aspirations of everyone, including those displaced abroad.

在战争持续不断的背景下，乌克兰面临着重建的挑战。与其他灾后和冲突后情况类似，恢复工作也遵循 "重建得更好"（BBB）的原则。虽然这些原则可以被解释为拥护可持续发展的理想，但挑战在于如何定义 "更好"，特别是当这一概念通常被从优先考虑自上而下的规划、注重基础设施和经济产出的角度来解释时。需要重新思考 "更好 "的概念，特别是从受影响人口的角度出发。本研究以居住在西班牙巴伦西亚的流离失所的乌克兰人的经历为中心，提出了一种参与式方法来设想城市从流离失所中恢复。通过与该社区合作，本研究旨在重新定义乌克兰城市恢复背景下的 "更好"。这项研究借鉴了女权主义城市主义、批判性发展视角和未来研究，通过工作坊、访谈和摄影选言等方法，调查了流离失所者的交叉压迫和见解。研究结果强调了一种集体愿景，即优先考虑情感复原力、社会凝聚力和关爱，参与者优先考虑面向社区的绿地、包容性公共服务和可持续流动性。这些见解挑战了传统恢复模式中对 "生物多样性增强 "的常规诠释，因为传统模式往往注重可衡量的经济成果，以及 "破坏性重建 "的风险延续。取而代之的是，这项研究倡导一种更具包容性、可持续性和社会公正性的恢复过程，以尊重每个人（包括海外流离失所者）的不同需求和愿望。

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引用次数: 0

Imagined futures in sustainability transitions: Towards diverse future-making 可持续性转型中的想象未来：实现多样化的未来创造

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103502

Jonathan Friedrich , Abe Hendriks

The study of addressing socio-environmental challenges through sustainability transitions inherently considers the future in various ways, although these considerations are often only implicit. In this essay, we argue that it is crucial to engage more explicitly in understanding how imagined futures are enacted and comprehended within research on sustainability transitions. This endeavour is necessary to navigate both the uncertainty and complexity of the future and to avoid perpetuating cognitive path dependencies and unsustainable modes of production and consumption that uphold existing injustices. Our paper discusses characteristics of futures and future-making that are relevant to transition studies. Given the spatial contingency of futures, the social construction of time, and the tendency to reproduce incumbent futures in transitions research, we outline contours of diverse futures through which we can not only analyse but actively engage in diverse future-making. Finally, we discuss the limitations of our approach for the study and community of sustainability transitions.

通过可持续性转型应对社会环境挑战的研究本质上以各种方式考虑未来，尽管这些考虑往往只是隐含的。在本文中，我们认为必须更明确地理解在可持续性转型研究中如何制定和理解想象中的未来。为了应对未来的不确定性和复杂性，避免认知路径依赖以及不可持续的生产和消费模式永久化，从而维护现有的不公正，这一努力是必要的。我们的论文讨论了与转型研究相关的未来和未来创造的特征。考虑到未来的空间偶然性、时间的社会建构以及过渡研究中复制现有未来的倾向，我们勾勒出了多样化未来的轮廓，通过这些轮廓，我们不仅可以分析而且可以积极参与多样化的未来创造。最后，我们讨论了我们的方法在可持续性过渡研究和社区中的局限性。

引用次数: 0

Temporality in the United Nations 2030 Agenda: development or rupture? 联合国 2030 年议程的时间性：发展还是断裂？

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103498

Juan Telleria

Time is a constitutive element of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations (UN). This article analyses how the 2030 Agenda articulates time – i.e. how its discourse connects past, present and future. This analysis shows how the agenda partially breaks with the 19th-century evolutionist assumptions that pervaded previous UN development policies and strategies. On the one hand, the 2030 Agenda implicitly assumes that a historical rupture is needed to shift the world towards a sustainable path in order to avert a civilisational crisis, and that the history of modern, industrialised Western countries is no longer exemplary in this respect. On the other hand, the 2030 Agenda fails to integrate the need for a historical rupture consequentially: it falls into contradictions and continues to replicate the linear logics that caused the very problems that the agenda aims to solve. ‘Development or rupture?’ seems to be the troublesome and difficult dilemma that haunts the UN’s endeavour to transform the world.

时间是联合国 2030 年可持续发展议程的构成要素。本文分析了 2030 年议程如何阐明时间，即其论述如何将过去、现在和未来联系起来。分析表明，该议程如何部分地打破了充斥于联合国以往发展政策和战略中的 19 世纪进化论假设。一方面，2030 年议程含蓄地假定，为了避免文明危机，世界需要出现历史性断裂，才能转向可持续发展的道路，而现代西方工业化国家的历史在这方面不再具有典范意义。另一方面，2030 年议程未能将历史断裂的必要性纳入其中：它陷入了矛盾之中，并继续复制造成该议程旨在解决的问题的线性逻辑。发展还是断裂？"这似乎是困扰联合国改造世界努力的棘手难题。

引用次数: 0

From “snowflake generation” to “agents of social change”: Recognizing the voice of Spanish young people in the post-pandemic era 从 "雪花一代 "到 "社会变革的推动者"：在后大流行病时代承认西班牙年轻人的声音

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103500

Silvia Marcu

This article uses 60 in-depth interviews with young Spanish people and contributes to studies on youth geographies of future in post-pandemic. The paper gives young people a voice by analysing two interlinked concepts: (l) the “snowflake generation” – “generación de cristal” – which was popularized in Spain as a fragile and insecure generation and consequently exhibiting a lack of tolerance and frustration in the face of unachieved goals; and (2) “agents of change”, included on broader perspectives of youth activism, meaning a generation motivated by the desire to construct a regenerated post-pandemic society. My hypothesis is that the fragility of the younger generation after the pandemic has transformed over time into an aspiration and motivation to become agents of social change. The findings highlight that young people are using their technological knowledge and resilience to overcome fragility, participating and demanding recognition of their criticisms and perceptions of injustice. The conclusions offer a better understanding of young people and their capacity to be responsible and innovative, converting weakness into strength. They show the need to advance theoretical and empirical understanding of younger perspectives in relation to how they want to change and make a greater contribution to future society.

本文通过对 60 名西班牙青年的深入访谈，为后大流行病时代的青年未来地理研究做出了贡献。本文通过分析两个相互关联的概念，让年轻人发出自己的声音：(l) "雪花一代"（"generación de cristal"）--在西班牙被认为是脆弱和缺乏安全感的一代，因此在面对未实现的目标时表现出缺乏宽容和挫败感；(2) "变革的推动者"（包括从更广泛的角度看待青年行动主义），指的是被构建大流行后再生社会的愿望所激励的一代人。我的假设是，疫情过后，年轻一代的脆弱随着时间的推移转化为成为社会变革推动者的愿望和动力。研究结果强调，年轻人正在利用他们的技术知识和应变能力来克服脆弱性，参与并要求承认他们对不公正现象的批评和看法。这些结论使人们更好地了解了青年人及其负责任和创新的能力，以及化弱为强的能力。这些结论表明，有必要从理论和实证角度进一步了解年轻人希望如何改变并为未来社会做出更大贡献的观点。

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引用次数: 0

The politics of transdisciplinary research on societal transitions 社会转型跨学科研究的政治性

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103499

Jonas House , Natalie Davis , Brian J. Dermody , Hilje van der Horst , Frederike Praasterink , Sigrid Wertheim-Heck

Within research on societal transitions, ‘post-normal’ scientific approaches such as transdisciplinary research are increasingly prominent. The difficulties of interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research are well-established, but less attention has been paid to the underlying causes of these difficulties. In this essay, we argue that the political natures of both ‘transdisciplinarity’ and ‘transitions’ themselves underlie the more visible research challenges. While recent work has outlined how transitions research, embedded as it is in the sociopolitical milieu, can reproduce or challenge existing regimes, here we discuss more specifically the politics of projects themselves, which necessarily affect how they inform societal transitions. Using literature and examples from our own work, we outline three politically contested areas in projects – stakeholder inclusion, understanding of transitions, and research questions that are considered – and identify two broad orientations that research can follow to address these: incremental or fundamental. The interconnectedness of the political aspects of transdisciplinary transitions research requires explicit attention, we argue, if such work is to effectively address complex and ‘wicked’ societal challenges.

在社会转型研究中，跨学科研究等 "后常态 "科学方法日益突出。跨学科和跨学科研究的困难是公认的，但人们较少关注这些困难的根本原因。在这篇文章中，我们认为 "跨学科 "和 "转型 "本身的政治性质是更显而易见的研究挑战的根源。近期的研究工作概述了过渡研究如何在社会政治环境中再现或挑战现有制度，在此，我们将更具体地讨论项目本身的政治性，这必然会影响项目如何为社会过渡提供信息。我们利用文献和自身工作中的实例，概述了项目中三个具有政治争议的领域--利益相关者的融入、对转型的理解以及所考虑的研究问题--并确定了解决这些问题的两大研究方向：渐进式或根本性。我们认为，如果跨学科过渡研究工作要有效应对复杂而 "邪恶 "的社会挑战，就必须明确关注跨学科过渡研究政治方面的相互关联性。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring urban novel ecosystems: Understandings, insights and recommendations for future research and practice 探索城市新生态系统：对未来研究和实践的理解、见解和建议

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103487

Melissa Pineda-Pinto , Marcus Collier , Clair Cooper , Mairéad O’Donnell , Fiona Nulty , Natalia Rodriguez Castañeda

Novel ecosystems are those that have been altered by human activities and have afterwards experienced abandonment or human disuse, allowing for a new assemblage of species to establish. In urban areas, these ecosystems, are commonly found in post-industrial sites, vacant lots, and other unmanaged spaces. The informality of these ecosystems, assumptions of their low ecological value, and associations with negative attributes continue to prevent recognition of their social-ecological value. Although research in the last decade has started to show the potential of novel ecosystems to address several challenges such as biodiversity loss, there remains a need to understand what areas of research are needed to progress our understanding of these ecosystems in urban areas. This paper uses a modified Delphi methodology, in which a panel of knowledge-holders provided their understandings and insights of urban novel ecosystems. Through this process, we distilled key questions for future research and practice that should drive the investigation of these wild ecosystems for improved decision-making. This study sets out recommendations on how to progress the research questions as part of urban transformative agendas in which urban novel ecosystems offer new possibilities for climate experimentation, social-ecological stewardship and biodiversity conservation.

新生态系统是指那些曾被人类活动改变过的生态系统，在经历了废弃或人类废弃之后，新的物种组合得以建立。在城市地区，这些生态系统通常出现在后工业区、空地和其他无人管理的空间。这些生态系统的非正规性、对其生态价值低的假设以及与负面属性的联系继续阻碍着人们对其社会生态价值的认识。尽管过去十年的研究已开始显示出新型生态系统在应对生物多样性丧失等挑战方面的潜力，但我们仍需了解需要在哪些领域开展研究，以加深我们对城市地区这些生态系统的了解。本文采用了改进的德尔菲方法，由知识持有者组成的小组提供他们对城市新生态系统的理解和见解。通过这一过程，我们提炼出了未来研究和实践的关键问题，这些问题应推动对这些野生生态系统的调查，以改善决策。本研究就如何推进研究问题提出了建议，作为城市转型议程的一部分，城市新生态系统为气候实验、社会生态管理和生物多样性保护提供了新的可能性。

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引用次数: 0

Narratives, expectations, and policy criteria for a democratic and socially engaging energy transition 民主和社会参与能源转型的叙事、期望和政策标准

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103496

Inês Campos , Miguel Brito , Stefan Pfenninger-Lee , Luís M. Fazendeiro , Guilherme Pontes Luz , Francesco Lombardi , Aías Lima , Cristina Madrid-López

Energy transition policies can be translated into narratives about how energy systems should change (e.g., towards a centralised or decentralised system). These narratives tend to reflect expectations, priorities, and perceptions on feasibility and the social acceptability of different policy options, as well as long-term goals and trade-offs, all of which influence policy criteria. Taking as its case study Portugal and the implementation of European directives there, this study aims to characterise energy transition narratives (e.g. a swift transformation to renewables) and interrelated policy criteria (e.g., participation of local communities), focusing on expectations for a socially engaging and democratic energy transition. The analysis builds on the results of a Delphi survey with 10 expert stakeholders, a citizens’ survey (n=500), and a workshop with 19 participants. It identifies the most relevant criteria to stakeholders, as well as the importance of different underlying expectations, meanings, and attitudes shaping narratives about energy system futures. The findings indicate that criteria interrelated to narratives which highlight a promise of democratic energy governance may be less important for energy transition policies, and therefore undermine energy democracy goals. The conclusion highlights suggestions for policy and future research more likely to foster sociopolitical acceptance.

能源转型政策可转化为关于能源系统应如何变化（如向集中或分散系统转变）的叙述。这些叙述往往反映了人们的期望、优先事项、对不同政策选择的可行性和社会可接受性的看法，以及长期目标和权衡，所有这些都会影响政策标准。本研究以葡萄牙及其执行欧洲指令的情况为案例，旨在描述能源转型叙事（如迅速向可再生能源转型）和相互关联的政策标准（如当地社区的参与）的特点，重点关注对社会参与和民主能源转型的期望。该分析以 10 位专家利益相关者参与的德尔菲调查、公民调查（人数=500）和 19 位参与者参与的研讨会的结果为基础。该分析确定了与利益相关者最相关的标准，以及影响能源系统未来叙述的不同基本期望、意义和态度的重要性。研究结果表明，与强调能源民主治理承诺的叙述相关的标准可能对能源转型政策不那么重要，因此会破坏能源民主的目标。结论强调了更有可能促进社会政治接受的政策和未来研究建议。

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引用次数: 0

Future cities' theories for sustainable future: A systematic literature review 未来城市的可持续未来理论：系统文献综述

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103494

Hussaen A.H. Kahachi , Maria Abreu , Mufeed Ehsan

In recent decades, sustainability has surged as a pivotal topic in academic discourse, driven by heightened global awareness of its critical role in addressing climate change, biodiversity loss, and social inequities. Consequently, cities and local authorities are increasingly prioritizing sustainability integration into urban development strategies. However, the realization of the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals faces challenges, with only 12–15 % of targets estimated to be met by the 2030 deadline. Scholars attribute this under-performance to the absence of a comprehensive approach to sustainable urban development. This study investigates the framework and mechanisms of mature future cities’ theories in achieving sustainability, focusing on sustainable urban development principles. Through a systematic review utilizing Natural Language Processing and statistical analysis of over 27,000 SCOPUS documents, the research evaluates 43 future cities’ theories from 1900 to 2023. Criteria such as comprehensiveness, consistency, empirical support, and applicability to sustainable development are analyzed. The study identifies mature theories like Smart City, Resilient City, and Sustainable City as promising avenues for sustainable urban development, albeit requiring refinement. The findings offer valuable insights to guide research and practice towards achieving sustainable urban development in cities.

近几十年来，全球对可持续发展在应对气候变化、生物多样性丧失和社会不平等方面的关键作用的认识不断提高，可持续发展已成为学术讨论中的一个重要议题。因此，城市和地方当局越来越重视将可持续性纳入城市发展战略。然而，2015 年可持续发展目标的实现面临挑战，预计到 2030 年的最后期限，只有 12-15% 的目标可以实现。学者们将这一欠佳表现归咎于缺乏可持续城市发展的综合方法。本研究以可持续城市发展原则为重点，调查了成熟的未来城市理论在实现可持续性方面的框架和机制。通过利用自然语言处理技术对超过 27,000 份 SCOPUS 文件进行系统回顾和统计分析，本研究对 1900 年至 2023 年期间的 43 个未来城市理论进行了评估。分析的标准包括全面性、一致性、经验支持以及对可持续发展的适用性。研究发现，智能城市、弹性城市和可持续城市等成熟理论是城市可持续发展的可行途径，尽管还需要完善。研究结果为指导城市可持续发展的研究和实践提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Defining future cities: A comparative review of future cities’ definitions and characteristics across multiple fields 定义未来城市：多领域未来城市定义和特征比较研究

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103491

Hussaen A.H. Kahachi , Maria Abreu , Mufeed Ehsan

The rapid interest in future cities within academia is driven by the rising complexity of urban development and challenges such as rapid urbanization, population growth, and inequality. Researchers across various fields have different understandings of future cities and their characteristics, causing confusion and divergence between implementation goals and theories. This research addresses this gap by providing a unified, multidisciplinary definition of future cities, critically analyzing their intellectual and practical characteristics across fields including philosophy, computer science, engineering, environmental science, management, economics, social science, health sciences, architecture and planning. This research employed a mixed-method approach of a hybrid systematic-narrative literature review to identify key characteristics, followed by a multidisciplinary focus group of experts to synthesize the definition and key characteristics. It concluded that despite the rising interest in academia about future cities in recent years, there are differences in how various fields perceive future cities, particularly in areas like infrastructure, resource management, innovation, adaptability, technology, sustainability, and human needs. Despite these differences, future cities share common goals of meeting the well-being and justice needs of both current and future residents. They rely on technology, sustainability practices, community involvement, responsible citizenship, and efficient governance and leadership to ensure sustainable and effective long-term outcomes.

城市发展的复杂性不断上升，快速城市化、人口增长和不平等现象等挑战日益严峻，这促使学术界对未来城市的关注迅速升温。不同领域的研究人员对未来城市及其特征有着不同的理解，造成了实施目标和理论之间的混乱和分歧。本研究针对这一空白，对未来城市进行了统一的、多学科的定义，批判性地分析了未来城市在哲学、计算机科学、工程学、环境科学、管理学、经济学、社会科学、健康科学、建筑学和规划学等领域的知识和实践特征。这项研究采用了一种混合方法，即通过系统-叙事混合文献综述来确定关键特征，然后通过多学科专家焦点小组来综合定义和关键特征。研究认为，尽管近年来学术界对未来城市的关注度不断提高，但各领域对未来城市的认识存在差异，尤其是在基础设施、资源管理、创新、适应性、技术、可持续性和人类需求等方面。尽管存在这些差异，未来城市的共同目标是满足当前和未来居民的福祉和正义需求。它们依靠技术、可持续发展实践、社区参与、负责任的公民意识以及高效的治理和领导力来确保可持续和有效的长期成果。

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引用次数: 0

Planetary scale climatic change through bioengineering the microbial world. A technofix imaginary 通过微生物世界的生物工程改变全星球的气候。技术的想象

IF 3 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103495

Daniele Fulvi, Josh Wodak

This article critically analyses the imaginary that is emerging from attempts to mitigate planetary scale climatic change through bioengineering the microbial world, that is, through synthetic biology. We explore how engineering microbial life is put forth by its advocates as a viable means of mitigating climate change and thus conferring benefit for future human and more-than-human life. We discuss how these promises, while far-reaching, translate into a technofix imaginary, whereby a future existence of human and untold more-than-human life is contingent on the realisation of such promises. Moreover, we illustrate how the engineering imaginary of synthetic biology is not limited to life alone, but is rather the byproduct of an aspiration to control global ecosystems and climates, and even the course of evolution, via the manufacturing and control of life at the microbial level. We conclude with a critique of how such an imaginary remains incommensurate with fundamental aspects of life that elude human control, and will arguably continue to do so. Thus, the technofix imaginary of synthetic biology is likely to be scaled down in order to reflect the actual achievements of the field, and not its speculative applications.

本文批判性地分析了试图通过微生物世界的生物工程，即通过合成生物学来减缓地球规模气候变化的想象。我们探讨了微生物生命工程的倡导者如何将其作为减缓气候变化的可行手段，从而为未来的人类和超人类生命带来益处。我们讨论了这些承诺虽然意义深远，但如何转化为一种 "技术固定"（technofix）想象，即人类和难以计数的超人类生命的未来存在取决于这些承诺的实现。此外，我们还说明了合成生物学的工程想象如何不仅限于生命，而是通过在微生物层面制造和控制生命来控制全球生态系统和气候，甚至进化过程的愿望的副产品。最后，我们要批判的是，这种想象与人类无法控制的生命的基本方面不相称，而且可以说将继续不相称。因此，合成生物学的技术想象可能会被缩小，以反映该领域的实际成就，而不是其投机性应用。

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引用次数: 0