Futures最新文献 - Book学术

Beyond awareness: Climate games as invitations to care for the future 超越意识：气候游戏作为关注未来的邀请

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103760

carien moossdorff, Joost M. Vervoort

Care is a valuable lens for engaging with climate futures. Care for the environment is needed as a motivator to prevent further climate change, as is care for other humans and non-human species who face climate change effects. Games are a promising medium for practicing climate care, but little is known about how these games invite players to care for the future. We analyze a database of 287 published games that relate to man-made climate change. Through a comparative analysis, we develop a typology of these climate games, and for each type we discuss how these games invite players to practice future care. Five types of climate games emerge: casual, knowledge, systems management, experience, and backdrop. Each type offers its own combination of care practice affordances and representation of futures. ‘Systems management’ games engage with care with a broad range of affordances and long time horizon, but in a very abstract mode. ‘Experience’ games have shorter time horizons and focus more on emotions. ‘Knowledge’ games offer control over player outcomes, but little care practice or futures imagination. ‘Casual’ games offer a practical but thin invitation to care; and ‘backdrop’ games only use climate futures as a background, offering no direct possibilities to care for the climate. Our analysis reveals both existing and unused design spaces when it comes to making caring for the future accessible in games and in futures-focused media more generally.

关怀是参与未来气候变化的宝贵视角。保护环境是防止气候进一步变化的动力，保护面临气候变化影响的其他人类和非人类物种也是如此。游戏是实践气候关怀的一种很有前途的媒介，但人们对这些游戏如何邀请玩家关心未来却知之甚少。我们分析了一个包含287款与人为气候变化相关的已发布游戏的数据库。通过对比分析，我们对这些气候游戏进行了分类，并针对每种类型讨论了这些游戏如何邀请玩家实践未来关怀。五种类型的气候游戏出现了：休闲、知识、系统管理、体验和背景。每种类型都提供了自己的护理实践能力和未来表现的组合。“系统管理”类游戏涉及范围广泛、时间跨度长，但却是非常抽象的模式。“体验”类游戏的时间跨度更短，更注重情感。“知识”游戏提供对玩家结果的控制，但很少关注实践或未来的想象。“休闲”游戏提供的是一种实用但又缺乏吸引力的关怀；而“背景”游戏只使用气候未来作为背景，并没有提供直接关注气候的可能性。我们的分析揭示了现有的和未使用的设计空间，当涉及到在游戏和面向未来的媒体中更普遍地关怀未来时。

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引用次数: 0

Foresight for pandemic-resilient futures: CRISPR, interpretive biosensing, and smart diagnostics 对未来抗流行病能力的预见：CRISPR、解释性生物传感和智能诊断

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103767

Jacob Tizhe Liberty

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical weaknesses in global diagnostic systems, highlighting the urgent need for more anticipatory, adaptive, and equitable approaches to health security. This paper explores the transformative potential of converging three technological domains: CRISPR-based diagnostics, interpretive biosensing, and smart diagnostic infrastructures through the lens of strategic foresight and systems innovation. Whereas each of these technologies is advancing rapidly in isolation, their synergistic integration offers a new paradigm for pandemic resilience: one characterized by real-time sensing, contextual interpretation, and dynamic response capabilities. Drawing on interdisciplinary literature, global case studies, and foresight methodologies, this paper analyzes the current state of each domain, identifies systemic barriers to their convergence, and outlines pathways for scalable, inclusive implementation. The present work further examines the governance, regulatory, and ethical challenges that must be addressed to ensure equitable access and social legitimacy. A strategic roadmap to 2040 is proposed, envisioning a diagnostic ecosystem capable of early threat detection, personalized risk assessment, and coordinated global response. The findings suggest that the future of diagnostics lies not in singular innovations but in the orchestrated integration of programmable biology, AI-enhanced sensing, and real-time infrastructure. Such convergence has the potential to transform diagnostics from passive tools into active agents of global health security, enabling a shift from reaction to resilience in the face of emerging biological threats.

2019冠状病毒病大流行暴露了全球诊断系统的严重弱点，突出表明迫切需要采取更具预见性、适应性和公平性的卫生安全方法。本文探讨了融合三个技术领域的变革潜力：基于crispr的诊断，解释性生物传感，以及通过战略远见和系统创新的智能诊断基础设施。虽然这些技术中的每一种都在孤立地迅速发展，但它们的协同整合为大流行韧性提供了一种新的范例：一种以实时传感、背景解释和动态响应能力为特征的范例。利用跨学科文献、全球案例研究和前瞻性方法，本文分析了每个领域的现状，确定了它们融合的系统性障碍，并概述了可扩展、包容性实施的途径。目前的工作进一步研究了必须解决的治理、监管和道德挑战，以确保公平获取和社会合法性。提出了到2040年的战略路线图，设想了一个能够早期发现威胁、个性化风险评估和协调全球应对的诊断生态系统。研究结果表明，诊断学的未来不在于单一的创新，而在于可编程生物学、人工智能增强的传感和实时基础设施的精心整合。这种融合有可能将诊断从被动的工具转变为全球卫生安全的积极因素，从而在面对新出现的生物威胁时从反应转变为复原力。

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引用次数: 0

Survival of the queerest: queer survival and future possibilities 酷儿的生存：酷儿的生存和未来的可能性

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103766

Laurène Cheilan

In the process of imagining, anticipating, materialising futures, narratives of survival play a central role. How we think about human survival, what narratives are used to think survival and from what social practices they derive, condition heavily not only our collective sense of futurity but also our stories and practices of futures-making. Marginalised communities have extensive and ubiquitous histories of surviving in environments that were meant to erase or destroy them. Queer lives are, by definition, precarious and under threat. The notion of survival is central to the queer existence and experience. Moreover, queering as a theoretical project holds transformative possibilities that can be applied to survival in ways that align with these “singular plural” lived experiences. This paper asks: what can we learn from queer stories and experiences of survival? What would entail the queering of our ideas of survival, and what would that mean for opening-up different forms of engagement with future possibilities? Examining a range of literature approaching stories and practices of queer survival, I explore four dimensions of queer survival and reflect on some of the implications for futures-thinking and making. These themes are care and community, resources, resilience and imagination. Queer temporalities run across these themes through the subversion of straight linear time. Far from heteropatriarchal ideologies of survival, defined through competition, violence and domination, queer survival entails dispossession, undoing of the self and ability to deal with ongoing loss while animating germs of possibilities for the future.

在想象、预测和物化未来的过程中，生存叙事起着核心作用。我们如何看待人类的生存，用什么样的叙事方式来思考生存以及它们从什么样的社会实践中衍生出来，不仅严重影响了我们对未来的集体意识，也影响了我们的故事和未来创造的实践。被边缘化的社区有着广泛而无处不在的生存历史，他们在本应被抹去或摧毁的环境中生存。同性恋者的生活，顾名思义，是不稳定的，受到威胁的。生存的概念是酷儿生存和经历的核心。此外，酷儿作为一个理论项目具有变革的可能性，可以以与这些“单复数”生活经验相一致的方式应用于生存。本文的问题是：我们能从酷儿的故事和生存经历中学到什么？什么会导致我们的生存观念的转变，这对开放不同形式的参与未来的可能性意味着什么？通过研究一系列关于酷儿生存的故事和实践的文学作品，我探索了酷儿生存的四个维度，并反思了一些对未来思考和决策的影响。这些主题是关怀和社区、资源、韧性和想象力。酷儿的时间性贯穿了这些主题，颠覆了直线时间。与通过竞争、暴力和统治来定义的异性恋父权制的生存意识形态不同，酷儿的生存需要剥夺、自我毁灭和处理持续损失的能力，同时为未来的可能性孕育生机。

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引用次数: 0

Identity dysphoria: Queerness thinking to expand futures studies on legitimacy and corporate behaviour 身份焦虑：酷儿思维拓展合法性与企业行为的未来研究

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103765

María López-Correa , Carmen Otero-Neira

Third Sector of Social Action (TSSA) organizations operate in environments characterised by high levels of uncertainty, dependence on external resources, and multiple social expectations that are often contradictory and have profound effects on how they experience and manage change. These aspects represent a unique challenge to trust and credibility in this type of organisation which, due to their distinctive characteristics, seem to instantly deserve legitimacy, as they enjoy great social support due to the principles and values they defend. But do they deserve it?

Studying, from a Queerness approach, and stretching its scope towards legitimacy and corporate behaviour, in this work we aim to understand whether this supervening legitimacy is understandable and justifiable enough to make them credible and trustworthy organisations. Finding out whether the TSSA ethical values are equally valuable for the internal operations of the organisations and for the external operations of the sector, will allow us to identify its potential identity dysphoria as a result of the lack of alignment with the socially accepted discourse.

By opening up to a queering process for the transformation of identity narratives for future research, this paper offers an integrative framework to analyse the coherence of discourses issued at the individual (organisations) and global (sector) levels as key elements for understanding legitimacy and organisational behaviour through the concept of identity dysphoria, taken from Queer Theory; that is, whether or not there is alignment, or otherness in Queer terms, when confronting individual oneself and sectorial interpretation and the bidirectional frictions of companies attempting to stand out and belong at the same time to justify their legitimacy.

社会行动第三部门（TSSA）组织在高度不确定、依赖外部资源和多重社会期望的环境中运作，这些期望往往是相互矛盾的，并对他们如何经历和管理变革产生深远影响。这些方面对这类组织的信任和信誉构成了独特的挑战，这些组织由于其独特的特点，似乎立即应该获得合法性，因为它们因其捍卫的原则和价值观而享有巨大的社会支持。但他们值得吗？从酷儿的角度进行研究，并将其范围扩展到合法性和企业行为，在这项工作中，我们的目标是了解这种监督的合法性是否足以理解和合理，从而使他们成为可信和值得信赖的组织。找出TSSA的道德价值观对组织的内部运作和部门的外部运作是否同样有价值，将使我们能够识别由于缺乏与社会接受的话语一致而导致的潜在身份焦虑。通过为未来研究打开身份叙事转变的酷儿过程，本文提供了一个综合框架来分析在个人（组织）和全球（部门）层面发布的话语的连贯性，作为理解合法性和组织行为的关键要素，通过来自酷儿理论的身份不安的概念；也就是说，当面对个人和行业的解释，以及公司试图脱颖而出并同时属于自己以证明其合法性的双向摩擦时，是否存在一致性，或者用酷儿术语来说是否存在差异性。

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引用次数: 0

Social construction theory and alternative energy futures for oil and gas sector in an underdeveloped economy 欠发达经济体中油气行业的社会建设理论与替代能源期货

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103764

Khurram Jahangir Sharif, Mohd Nishat Faisal

This pioneering study was based on a framework which applied foresight building within the realm of Theory of Social Construction in the future analysis of oil and gas sector within an economy facing energy hardships. Through utilization of future consciousness tools, including Polak game, futures triangle and scenario building, oil and gas sector in Pakistan was critically analyzed. Multiple stakeholders (nineteen in total) were chosen using purposive sampling where relevant knowledge and appropriate experience was the key selection criteria. Thematic approach was used for data analysis which facilitated organization of data into information. The main findings indicated a complex interplay between optimism and systemic barriers in shaping the future of Pakistan’s oil and gas sector. While stakeholders (respondents) acknowledge opportunities for growth, structural inefficiencies, economic constraints, and regulatory hurdles presented significant challenges. The study underscored the importance of proactive policymaking, technological adoption, and strategic investments in human capital to enable a transition towards a sustainable and a resilient energy future. For an under-developing nation with an uncertain energy future, foresight development helps with identification of trends that are likely to have a positive or a negative impact. This anticipation may help address some of the uncertainties and risks through timely recognition and potential reconciliation.

这项开创性的研究是基于一个框架，该框架将社会建设理论领域内的远见建设应用于对面临能源困难的经济中的石油和天然气部门的未来分析。通过使用未来意识工具，包括波兰游戏、期货三角和情景构建，对巴基斯坦的石油和天然气行业进行了批判性分析。使用有目的的抽样选择多个利益相关者（总共19个），其中相关知识和适当的经验是关键的选择标准。数据分析采用了专题方法，这有助于将数据组织成资料。主要研究结果表明，乐观主义和系统性障碍之间存在复杂的相互作用，影响着巴基斯坦油气行业的未来。虽然利益相关者（受访者）承认增长的机会，但结构性效率低下、经济约束和监管障碍带来了重大挑战。该研究强调了积极的政策制定、技术采用和人力资本战略投资的重要性，以实现向可持续和有弹性的能源未来过渡。对于一个能源前景不确定的欠发达国家来说，前瞻性发展有助于识别可能产生积极或消极影响的趋势。这种预期可能有助于通过及时认识和潜在的和解来解决一些不确定性和风险。

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引用次数: 0

Urban wind energy futures in the making: Energy plazas, hotspots, and enclaves 正在形成的城市风能未来：能源广场、热点和飞地

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103763

Iryna Lunevich, Sanneke Kloppenburg, Mattijs Smits, Simon R. Bush

This paper examines how alternative wind energy futures emerge in processes of implementing innovative wind energy projects in cities. Although future-making is central to energy transitions, the socio-material processes through which futures come into being are often only considered implicitly in futures studies. We analyse three cases of small-scale urban wind energy projects underpinned by visions of urban wind energy. In doing so, we examine how diverse wind energy futures are made through the assembling of urban wind energy visions, small-scale wind energy technologies, urban spaces, and practices of energy production and consumption at particular sites. We find that the assembling of human and non-human elements results in three distinct futures-in-the-making: the energy plaza, the energy hotspot, and the energy enclave. For the field of futures studies, this implies that understanding processes of future-making requires recognizing the material and spatial context in which such processes take place. For society, these energy futures-in-the-making contribute to the reimagining of wind energy ownership, and the ways in which we access, engage, and live with wind energy in cities. We also show that the future of wind energy can be small-scale, decentralised, and embedded in urban environments, which challenges the dominant future vision of large-scale, centralised, and remote rural and offshore wind energy systems.

本文探讨了在城市实施创新风能项目的过程中，替代风能的未来是如何出现的。虽然未来的制定是能源转型的核心，但在期货研究中，期货形成的社会-物质过程往往只被含蓄地考虑。我们分析了三个基于城市风能愿景的小规模城市风能项目案例。在此过程中，我们通过城市风能愿景、小规模风能技术、城市空间以及特定地点的能源生产和消费实践，研究风能未来的多样性。我们发现，人类和非人类元素的聚集导致了三种不同的未来：能源广场、能源热点和能源飞地。对于未来研究领域来说，这意味着理解未来创造的过程需要认识到这些过程发生的材料和空间背景。对于社会而言，这些正在形成的能源未来有助于重新构想风能的所有权，以及我们在城市中获取、参与和使用风能的方式。我们还表明，风能的未来可以是小规模、分散和嵌入城市环境的，这挑战了大规模、集中、偏远农村和海上风能系统的主导未来愿景。

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引用次数: 0

Speculative futures of artificial intelligence in education: A causal layered analysis of education fiction 人工智能在教育中的投机未来：对教育小说的因果分层分析

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103762

Iosif Gidiotis

This study examines how university stakeholders speculatively imagine futures for artificial intelligence in education (AIED) and the challenges these futures entail. Sixty-nine teachers, students, researchers and PhD candidates from Swedish higher education submitted short speculative scenarios via a bespoke web platform. Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), each text was coded across litany, systems, worldview and myth/metaphor layers to surface the assumptions and values underpinning imagined futures. Further analysis yielded four recurring configurations: Enhancement (AI as assistant/partner that personalises learning while keeping human judgement central), Transformation (human-AI fusion and continuous learning ecosystems that reconfigure institutions), Displacement (market logics and automation that deskill educators and render universities credential factories), and Resistance (protective constraints and AI-free spaces to preserve autonomy, authenticity and empathy). Across configurations, three cross-cutting tensions persisted: the human remainder (what stays uniquely human), the assessment paradox (how to evaluate learning amid AI-assisted outputs), and the efficiency-depth trade-off. It is argued that these tensions reflect AIED’s character as a wicked problem: they are not resolvable by technical fixes alone, but demand negotiated, value-explicit choices. The findings suggest that debates about AI in education reflect fundamental educational philosophies rather than merely technological capabilities. By documenting diverse stakeholder voices through education fiction, this study provides empirical grounding for understanding AIED as a site of contested imaginaries requiring negotiation between multiple futures. The study contributes methodologically by demonstrating education fiction’s value for exploring complex sociotechnical futures and practically by revealing tensions that educators and policymakers must navigate in designing AI-integrated educational systems.

本研究探讨了大学利益相关者如何推测教育中人工智能（AIED）的未来，以及这些未来所带来的挑战。来自瑞典高等教育的69名教师、学生、研究人员和博士候选人通过一个定制的网络平台提交了简短的推测场景。使用因果分层分析（CLA），每个文本都被编码成连篇累牍、系统、世界观和神话/隐喻层，以揭示支撑想象未来的假设和价值观。进一步的分析产生了四种反复出现的配置：增强（人工智能作为助手/合作伙伴，个性化学习，同时保持人类判断的中心），转型（人类-人工智能融合和持续学习生态系统，重新配置机构），置换（市场逻辑和自动化，使教育工作者失去技能，并使大学成为证书工厂），以及抵抗（保护性约束和无人工智能空间，以保持自主性，真实性和同理心）。在不同的配置中，三个交叉的紧张关系持续存在：人类的剩余部分（什么是唯一的人类），评估悖论（如何在人工智能辅助的输出中评估学习），以及效率与深度的权衡。有人认为，这些紧张关系反映了AIED作为一个邪恶问题的特点：它们不能仅仅通过技术修复来解决，而是需要协商，价值明确的选择。研究结果表明，关于教育中的人工智能的辩论反映了基本的教育理念，而不仅仅是技术能力。通过通过教育小说记录不同利益相关者的声音，本研究为理解AIED作为一个需要在多个未来之间进行协商的有争议的想象的场所提供了经验基础。该研究在方法上的贡献是，通过展示教育小说在探索复杂的社会技术未来方面的价值，在实践上揭示了教育工作者和政策制定者在设计与人工智能相结合的教育系统时必须应对的紧张关系。

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引用次数: 0

Groundwater governance: Integrating HHRA and strategic foresight to mitigate arsenic risk in Central Sindh, Pakistan 地下水治理：在巴基斯坦信德省中部整合人类健康评估和战略远见以减轻砷风险

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103761

Muhammad Afnan Talib , Abdul Wahab , Muhammad Usman , Muhammad Tayyab Sohail , Muhammad Rashid Ali

Groundwater arsenic (As) contamination poses a persistent public health emergency in Pakistan, with over 74 % of the studied area exceeding the WHO guideline of 10 µg/L. The resulting Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) confirms significant risks, including high adult non-carcinogenic risks and severe carcinogenic risks for children. Despite abundant technical data, the crisis persists due to deep-seated governance failures and the inadequacy of reactive, technocratic interventions. This study addresses the critical policy gap by introducing a novel integrated framework, combining quantitative HHRA with Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). CLA deconstructed the crisis to reveal that systemic issues – such as an outdated national standard (50 µg/L) and policies incentivizing over-extraction – are sustained by deep ideological logics. Key findings expose a dominant productivist worldview prioritizing economic growth, a narrow technocratic worldview relying on centralized fixes, and a spiritual-fatalistic belief that obscures structural responsibility. Crucially, these logics entrench gendered and class-based inequities, leaving women and low-income populations disproportionately exposed and marginalized in governance. This research contributes a comprehensive framework for anticipatory governance. Transformation requires moving beyond crisis response to implement justice-oriented reforms, replacing fatalistic myths with the narrative of “health as collective stewardship”. This transition is essential for achieving the Stewardship of Life – a resilient, equitable water future aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

在巴基斯坦，地下水砷污染构成了持续的公共卫生紧急情况，超过74% %的研究地区超过了世卫组织10 微克/升的指导方针。由此产生的人类健康风险评估（HHRA）确认了重大风险，包括成人非致癌风险高和儿童严重致癌风险。尽管有丰富的技术数据，但由于根深蒂固的治理失败和反应性技术官僚干预的不足，危机仍在继续。本研究通过引入一个新的综合框架，将定量HHRA与因果分层分析（CLA）相结合，解决了关键的政策缺口。CLA解构了这场危机，揭示了系统性问题——比如过时的国家标准（50 µg/L）和鼓励过度开采的政策——是由深刻的意识形态逻辑支撑的。主要发现揭示了一种以经济增长为优先的占主导地位的生产主义世界观，一种依赖集中修复的狭隘技术官僚世界观，以及一种模糊结构性责任的精神宿命论信仰。至关重要的是，这些逻辑巩固了性别和阶级不平等，使妇女和低收入人口不成比例地暴露在治理中并被边缘化。这项研究为前瞻性治理提供了一个全面的框架。转型需要超越危机应对，实施以正义为导向的改革，用“卫生是集体管理”的说法取代宿命论神话。这一转变对于实现“生命管理”至关重要，这是一个符合可持续发展目标的有弹性、公平的水资源未来。

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引用次数: 0

Reframing design futures through three perspectives: An integrative model for cross-domain dialogue and practice redirection 从三个角度重构设计未来：跨领域对话与实践重定向的整合模型

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103759

Tiantian Li

Design

Design Futures (DF) emerges from the intersection of design and future studies, exhibiting robust growth potential. However, as the discipline evolves, its boundaries are becoming increasingly broad, serving as a convergence point for numerous disciplines and practices—potentially more than initially imagine. The broad range of influences and growing importance stands in stark contrast to the relatively fragmented state of existing theoretical frameworks for Design Futures, highlighting an urgent need for a more holistic perspective to integrate its diversity and foster cross-domain dialogue. To address this challenge, this paper proposes to systematically understand the complexity of DF by examining three core perspectives on the relationship between 'design' and 'the future': 'design as critique', 'design as an act of anticipation', and 'design as future-making'. Based on these three perspectives, the paper further constructs a competence framework comprising the three abilities of critique, envisioning, and implementation, which serves to unify the complex and diverse practice typologies within the DF field. By analysing evidence of these three abilities mutually supporting and synergising within existing inter-disciplinary practices, this paper ultimately calls for the development of a more holistic DF methodology through a synergistic pathway of 'Critique + Envision + Implementation'. The contribution of this paper lies in providing an integrative model, composed of 'perspectives-abilities-typologies', which offers a new possibility for understanding and unifying the complex diversity of terminologies and practices within the DF field. It is our hope that this will contribute substantive conceptual guidance for the theoretical deepening, educational development, and practical redirection of the DF discipline.

design design Futures （DF）是设计与未来研究的交叉点，呈现出强劲的发展潜力。然而，随着学科的发展，它的边界变得越来越广泛，成为众多学科和实践的交汇点——可能比最初想象的要多。广泛的影响和日益增长的重要性与设计未来现有理论框架相对分散的状态形成鲜明对比，突出了迫切需要一个更全面的视角来整合其多样性并促进跨领域对话。为了应对这一挑战，本文建议通过研究“设计”与“未来”之间关系的三个核心观点来系统地理解DF的复杂性：“设计作为批判”、“设计作为一种预期行为”和“设计作为未来的创造”。基于这三个视角，本文进一步构建了一个由批判、设想和实施三种能力组成的能力框架，以统一DF领域内复杂多样的实践类型学。通过分析这三种能力在现有跨学科实践中相互支持和协同的证据，本文最终呼吁通过“批判+ 设想+ 实施”的协同途径开发更全面的DF方法。本文的贡献在于提供了一个由“视角-能力-类型学”组成的综合模型，为理解和统一DF领域内复杂的术语和实践多样性提供了新的可能性。我们希望这将为DF学科的理论深化、教育发展和实践转向提供实质性的概念指导。

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引用次数: 0

Suffering machines? A critical inquiry concerning the moral risks of creating an ‘organoid intelligence’ 痛苦机器?关于创造“类器官智能”的道德风险的批判性调查

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103758

Lambros Roumbanis

What could happen in the future if AI technologies became sentient like human beings, thus capable of suffering and feeling existentially alienated? The question warrants serious consideration, especially in light of recent advances in biocomputing, where small human brain organoids have been cultivated that display a rudimentary form of sentience. Currently, researchers aim at creating complex networked interfaces where several brain organoids are interconnected with each other, to real-world input/output sensors, and to machine-learning models. This constitutes a first step in the development of an ‘organoid intelligence’ (OI) that could potentially improve future decision-making and be much more energy efficient. But what are the ethical stakes of bringing new sentient and intelligent creatures to life to work for the benefit of humanity? In the present study, my aim is to highlight the latest progress in biocomputing and to examine the hypothetical risks of creating OI using a ‘speculative design fiction’ approach. My main argument is that we should not disregard the possibility that these efforts could accidentally cause the phenomenal experience of suffering to spill over from biology into technology, which could thus have tragic consequences. I will present three different, but partly overlapping, scenarios that illustrate how OI might experience and respond to an alienated labor situation. In the conclusion, I will assess a few solutions meant to prevent OI suffering and the importance of expanding our moral circles.

如果人工智能技术变得像人类一样有知觉，从而能够忍受痛苦并感到存在的疏离感，未来会发生什么？这个问题值得认真考虑，特别是考虑到最近生物计算的进展，人类大脑的小器官已经被培养出来，显示出一种基本的感知形式。目前，研究人员的目标是创建复杂的网络接口，其中几个脑类器官相互连接，用于现实世界的输入/输出传感器，以及机器学习模型。这构成了“类器官智能”（OI）发展的第一步，它可能会改善未来的决策，并提高能源效率。但是，为了人类的利益而创造新的有知觉和智能的生物，这其中的伦理风险是什么呢？在目前的研究中，我的目的是强调生物计算的最新进展，并使用“推测性设计虚构”的方法来检查创造成骨不全的假设风险。我的主要观点是，我们不应该忽视这样一种可能性，即这些努力可能意外地导致痛苦的非凡体验从生物学溢出到技术领域，从而可能产生悲剧性的后果。我将展示三种不同但部分重叠的场景，说明OI可能如何体验和响应异化的劳动情况。在结论中，我将评估一些旨在防止成骨不全症痛苦的解决方案，以及扩大我们的道德圈子的重要性。

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