Assessing storm surge compound disasters risk: A case study of the coastal area of Qingdao

Abstract

Global climate change has increased the frequency of compound disasters, posing significant challenges to coastal cities in China. This study assesses the risks of storm surge compound disaster (SSCD) in Qingdao's coastal areas to inform marine disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. The proposed assessment model integrates three key components: hazard, urban rigidity, and urban resilience, encompassing 3 primary and 14 secondary indicators. Utilizing the ADCIRC-SWAN coupled model, simulated the potential maximum typhoon storm surge scenario, identifying critical indicators such as inundation range, depth, significant wave height, and maximum wind speed. A combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Geographic Information Systems was employed to evaluate SSCD risk quantitatively. The results indicate varying risk levels across the study area, with the northern coast of Jiaozhou Bay identified as the highest-risk zone. To mitigate risks, the study recommends that Qingdao's coastal districts implement targeted strategies based on their specific urban rigidity and resilience profiles. Additionally, broader recommendations for coastal cities include establishing comprehensive disaster management systems, adopting ecosystem-based approaches, and fostering multi-stakeholder collaborative management models.