Forecasting the potential habitat for the spectacled bear and the Páramo ecoregion for current conditions and climate change scenarios in 2050: A contribution to SDG 15 in Perú, Ecuador and Colombia

Abstract

SDG 15, part of the UN's 2030 Agenda, focuses on "Life on Land". Target 15.5 aims to address habitat degradation, halt biodiversity decline, and protect species from extinction by 2020. Linked to the Red List Index (15.1.1) and its sub-indicator (15.5.1.2), we integrated a methodology to support endangered species and ecoregions in the Life on Land-NASA Project for Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. This complements the Red List metric, harmonizing reporting systems and facilitating comprehensive SDG 15 reporting. These countries selected the Spectacled bear and the Páramo ecoregion as pilot species and ecoregion to establish a method for forecasting their habitat suitability for SDG 15 reporting (2019–2022). We used the SDM R package to model habitat suitability with 1,192 occurrence records and 1,000 pseudo-absences for the Spectacled bear, and 50,147 occurrence records and 10,000 pseudo-absences for the Páramo. The modeling incorporated 19 Bioclim variables, elevation, and Human Footprint for a baseline (1970–2000) and three RCPs for 2050. The habitat suitability modeling indicated a decline in the spectacled bear's habitat for two RCPs in the high occurrence category. The Páramo ecoregion showed a decrease in all RCPs in the high occurrence probability. Random Forest outperformed other models within the SDM. For the spectacled bear, altitude was crucial for current conditions, while bio6 (Min Temperature of Coldest Month) was significant for RCPs. Elevation was the most important variable for the Páramos in both current conditions and RCPs 2050.