Regional ecological risk assessment and transfer mechanism based on improved gravity and social network analysis model: A case study of Northwest China

Abstract

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, regional ecological risk issues have become increasingly prominent. Scientifically assessing and analyzing ecological risks is crucial for implementing effective ecological protection measures. Currently, most studies primarily focus on the isolated ecological risk conditions of individual regions, while the interactive transfer relationships of ecological risks among these regions have received little attention. This limitation hinders a comprehensive and scientific reflection of the overall trends in regional ecological risks. Therefore, it is necessary to construct relevant models for an in-depth investigation of this issue. This study employs an improved gravity model to simulate the interactive transfer of ecological risks between different regions within the ecosystem framework, considering soil pollution, air pollution, and economic transmission pathways. Additionally, a social network analysis (SNA) model is applied to further dissect the mechanisms of ecological risk transfer among regions. Furthermore, by integrating ecological risk indices based on land use types and landscape patterns, a comprehensive ecological risk assessment method is proposed. Finally, a comprehensive assessment and analysis of ecological risks in five provinces of Northwest China from 2003 to 2022 is conducted. The results indicate that during the period from 2003 to 2022, the comprehensive ecological risk index of the region exhibited a fluctuating trend, remaining within an alert range overall. The spatial relative differences in ecological risk first increased and then decreased, showing a peak pattern. The transfer of pollution among regions through different pathways significantly increased the share of regional comprehensive risks, particularly in Gansu (88.87%), Qinghai (79.35%), and Shaanxi (70.91%). Moreover, the findings also indicate that Gansu is a significant transmitter of regional comprehensive ecological risks, warranting substantial attention. This research provides a scientific basis for risk assessment and governance in ecologically fragile areas.