Drought propagation in an Andean basin in South America: a spatio-temporal analysis approach with monitoring indices

Abstract

Drought is a climatic phenomenon that has increased in severity over time. This study analyzed drought spread in the Alto Patía basin (13,047 km²) in South America, applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) to assess meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought, respectively. Synchronous and asynchronous correlations were estimated, and Wavelet analysis was conducted to verify relationships among drought types. Results show that the lag between drought types varies based on the intensity, temporal continuity, and spatial extent of meteorological drought. A lag of zero months (1–2 months) was observed between meteorological and hydrological drought when moderate (severe) meteorological drought partially (fully) covers the basin. Agricultural drought, however, does not always correspond to meteorological drought during isolated rainfall events. As the first study in Colombia to systematically connect these drought types, this research addresses a gap in understanding how drought impacts progress across systems in regions with complex rainfall patterns. These findings offer critical insights into the interdependencies among drought types, supporting enhanced drought monitoring and early warning systems in similar climatic regions. By identifying specific lags between meteorological and hydrological droughts, this study provides practical guidance for land management, water conservation, and crop planning, offering a foundation for future research on drought resilience strategies.