Geographical Distribution, Spatial Directional Trends, and Spatio-Temporal Clusters of the First Rapid and Widespread Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Thailand
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Thailand was recognized as having the highest number of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks in Southeast Asia during 2021. Understanding how LSD outbreaks spread over time and space can provide detailed insight into the distribution and pattern of the disease, allowing for more precise identification of areas with high disease burden. This study aims to explore the spread of LSD among cattle in Thailand during 2021 using spatial and spatio-temporal analyses. Data were analyzed using spatial analysis techniques, including spatial autocorrelation and directional distribution. Additionally, the spatio-temporal models, including space–time permutation (STP) and Poisson with various maximum reported cluster size (MRCS) settings, were applied to the data to determine LSD outbreak clusters. Results showed that a total of 642 LSD outbreaks were reported from March to December 2021. Districts with confirmed cases exhibited spatial autocorrelation, indicating the interconnected spread of LSD across different geographic areas. Furthermore, the disease distribution pattern appeared to extend to the southern and southwestern regions from the northeast. Based on the spatio-temporal models, LSD outbreak clusters were identified in several regions. The STP model tended to identify more clusters with smaller radii compared to the Poisson model. The number of clusters detected varied according to both the model and MRCS setting, underscoring the importance of selecting the most relevant clusters for the effective implementation of disease control strategies. This study was the first of its kind to assess the spatial direction and spatio-temporal distribution of LSD outbreak clusters based on national-level data. Evaluating LSD occurrence through spatial and spatio-temporal analyses can provide valuable insight into its spatio-temporal dynamics, facilitating disease surveillance, control measures, and vector control strategies in Thailand.
期刊介绍：
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases brings together in one place the latest research on infectious diseases considered to hold the greatest economic threat to animals and humans worldwide. The journal provides a venue for global research on their diagnosis, prevention and management, and for papers on public health, pathogenesis, epidemiology, statistical modeling, diagnostics, biosecurity issues, genomics, vaccine development and rapid communication of new outbreaks. Papers should include timely research approaches using state-of-the-art technologies. The editors encourage papers adopting a science-based approach on socio-economic and environmental factors influencing the management of the bio-security threat posed by these diseases, including risk analysis and disease spread modeling. Preference will be given to communications focusing on novel science-based approaches to controlling transboundary and emerging diseases. The following topics are generally considered out-of-scope, but decisions are made on a case-by-case basis (for example, studies on cryptic wildlife populations, and those on potential species extinctions):
Pathogen discovery: a common pathogen newly recognised in a specific country, or a new pathogen or genetic sequence for which there is little context about — or insights regarding — its emergence or spread.
Prevalence estimation surveys and risk factor studies based on survey (rather than longitudinal) methodology, except when such studies are unique. Surveys of knowledge, attitudes and practices are within scope.
Diagnostic test development if not accompanied by robust sensitivity and specificity estimation from field studies.
Studies focused only on laboratory methods in which relevance to disease emergence and spread is not obvious or can not be inferred (“pure research” type studies).
Narrative literature reviews which do not generate new knowledge. Systematic and scoping reviews, and meta-analyses are within scope.
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