How does violence deter? Functional and informational effects of preemptive repression

Abstract

Research on the relationship between repression and dissent has mostly ignored the mechanisms through which repression affects dissent. I distinguish two distinct channels through which repression can deter dissidents. First, preemptive repression works through a functional channel by directly reducing the opposition’s capabilities. Second, the severity of preemptive repression provides information to its target about the strength of government. I use a formal model to demonstrate how these two channels interact, leading to strategic behavior that has not been discussed in previous work. In particular, I show that the functional and informational channels are not necessarily complementary. The model demonstrates that uncertainty about government resolve can increase or decrease observed repression. It also shows that repression can become more effective in deterring dissent when it is more costly and vice versa. Taken together, these results provide a theoretical explanation for the inconsistent empirical findings on the effect of repression on dissent and offer a framework for future research.