Ecological niche modelling and future scenarios of Cordia oncocalyx - A species of restricted distribution

Abstract

Climate change involves changes in environmental conditions and can lead to the displacement or extinction (local or range-wide). So, would it be possible for a species with a restricted distribution to persist under climate change scenarios? Our objective was, through niche mapping and modeling, to describe the suitable environmental conditions for Cordia oncocalyx, a native species that occurs predominantly in the northeast of Brazil, whose abundance has resulted in the proposal of a new typology for classifying the Caatinga – a seasonally dry tropical forest. The potential distribution of this species in the context of future scenarios is also presented. Six climatic variables that could affect and limit species distributions were considered, and species niche as a 3-dimensional convex hull was estimated. The HadGEM2-ES model under scenario RCP 8.5 was used to predict the bioclimatic variables in Brazil for 2050. High temperatures, low annual precipitation and very low precipitation in the driest quarter characterize the climate in the areas where the species currently occurs. Future scenarios point to the possibility of changes in the environmental suitability and distribution of this species. Protected areas may not be able to preserve the species in the face of climate change.