Modeling Long-Term Dynamics of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) in Germany Based on Major Precursors

Abstract

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) are organic chemicals emitted primarily by flora. They impact climate and human health, and their presence is influenced by environmental conditions. Despite the intense effects of climate change, there is lack of information about the spatiotemporal variations in BVOC emissions and underlying driving factors. This study aims to quantify the variation of BVOCs in Germany and attribute it to deriving factors. We first conducted a detailed study covering the period from 1979 to 2024, during which satellite observations were first became available. Then, using historical records and projected future climate-change scenarios, we simulated the dynamics of BVOCs over an extended timeframe (1790–2065). To track changes in BVOCs emissions, we accounted for constant emission factors and used remotely sensed proxies, summarized into five main factors: biomass, temperature, carbon dioxide, soil moisture, and wildfire. Our results show that the trend of BVOCs emissions declining reversed in 1978 ± 1, with increases now being observed. Since this year, the average BVOCs emissions in Germany increased by ∼54%. Spatially, eastern-central Germany and urban areas exhibit the highest increase. Future projections indicate a continued increase in emissions over the coming decades. Our results were validated by analyzing the Total Column Ozone and Formaldehyde.