Using a Neural Network Architecture for the Prediction of Neurologic Outcome for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests Using Hospital Level Variables and Novel Physiologic Markers.

Abstract

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a major public health burden due to its high mortality rate, sudden nature, and long-term impact on survivors. Consequently, there is a crucial need to create prediction models to better understand patient trajectories and assist clinicians and families in making informed decisions. We studied 107 adult OHCA patients admitted at an academic Emergency Department (ED) from 2018-2023. Blood samples and ocular ultrasounds were acquired at 1, 6, and 24 h after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Six classes of clinical and novel variables were used: (1) Vital signs after ROSC, (2) pre-hospital and ED data, (3) hospital admission data, (4) ocular ultrasound parameters, (5) plasma protein biomarkers and (6) sex steroid hormones. A base model was built using 1 h variables in classes 1-3, reasoning these are available in most EDs. Extending from the base model, we evaluated 26 distinct neural network models for prediction of neurological outcome by the cerebral performance category (CPC) score. The top-performing model consisted of all variables at 1 h resulting in an AUROC score of 0.946. We determined a parsimonious set of variables that optimally predicts CPC score. Our research emphasizes the added value of incorporating ocular ultrasound, plasma biomarkers, sex hormones in the development of more robust predictive models for neurological outcome after OHCA.