Closing the gap: Integrating behavioral and social dynamics through a modular modelling framework for low-energy demand pathways

Abstract

Demand-side pathways play a key role in achieving the 1.5-degree target and enhancing human well-being. Achieving this requires establishing a systematic bridge between social sciences and climate-energy-economy assessment tools, such as models. The IPCC's sixth assessment report faced challenges in providing robust demand-side scenarios, primarily due to the intricate nature of this challenge and existing knowledge gaps. Nevertheless, it emphasizes the urgent need for a more thorough examination of demand-side pathways. Policymakers and stakeholders are in dire need of improved decision support tools capable of anticipating demand-side interventions, especially behavioral and social interventions, and guide the planning of low-energy demand pathways. In this perspective, we comprehensively assess the drivers of change in the transition toward low-energy demand. We categorize these drivers into behavioral and socio-cultural factors, technological and infrastructural design and adoption, and institutional settings. Moreover, we propose a modular architecture and a complementary modelling framework that facilitates nuanced, policy-relevant scenario exploration. Such exploration is essential for translating scientific insights into actionable measures. Additionally, we call for a comprehensive community effort to co-create and co-develop this modular and complementary modelling platform.