Use-stage emissions of conventional, battery electric, and autonomous vehicles in Europe

Abstract

This study presents an evaluation of the environmental impacts of various vehicle technologies within the European Union (EU27) and the United Kingdom (UK), focusing on use-stage emissions from Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) adhering to Euro 2 to Euro 7 standards, alongside Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). By leveraging detailed emissions data and forecast scenarios up to 2050, the research quantitatively assesses the potential reductions in greenhouse gases and other pollutants under current and upcoming emission regulations. The findings indicate significant environmental benefits from stricter emission standards and a transition towards electric and autonomous vehicle technologies, with notable reductions in NO_x, particulate matter, and CO₂ emissions. However, the study highlights the critical dependence of these outcomes on integrating vehicles with cleaner electricity grids and higher market penetration rates of advanced technologies. The research provides critical insights into the effectiveness of emission regulations and technological advancements in reducing vehicle-related pollution to achieve the EU’s climate targets by 2050. It also demonstrates the importance of policy support for vehicle electrification and the rapid implementation of cleaner energy infrastructures.