Predicting suitable habitats for Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in Tropical Asia under changing climatic scenarios

Abstract

Protecting rare, endemic, and endangered species requires careful habitat evaluation to set strategic plans for mitigating biodiversity loss and prioritizing conservation goals. The endangered Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) exemplifies the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts, given its challenging habitat conditions. This study examines the impact of climate and land use changes on the suitable habitat distribution of Asian elephants. Utilizing ten predictor variables, including climatic, topographic, and land use data, and employing six ensemble Species Distribution Models (SDMs) alongside Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data, the study estimates spatial changes and potential habitat expansions for Asian elephants across Tropical Asia. Occurrence data were gathered from field surveys in Bangladesh and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database for Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Laos, Nepal, Thailand, and Vietnam. To evaluate habitat suitability, the analysis considered two distinct socioeconomic pathways (SSP 245 and SSP 370) across two future periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Results reveal a strong correlation between isothermality and habitat suitability, with higher isothermality enhancing the habitat conditions for Asian elephants. Among the SDMs, the random forest model demonstrated the highest performance. Projected scenarios indicate significant habitat fragmentation by 2061–2080, heightening the risk of species’ vulnerability. Specifically, in SSP 245, the north zone is anticipated to experience a higher rate of habitat loss (588.443 km²/year), whereas, in SSP 370, the west zone is expected to face a more severe rate of habitat loss (1,798.56 km²/year). The eastern zone, which includes Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and southern Myanmar, is notably at risk, with an estimated habitat loss of 14.8 million hectares. Anticipated changes in climate and land cover will impact the availability of essential resources such as food, water, and shelter, potentially driving the species to relocate to different elevation belts. The outcomes of the consensus map highlighting critical habitats and future fragmentation scenarios will support effective conservation and management strategies for the species.